Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading above $90,000, yet indicators suggest a pronounced risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric risk-off oscillator is hovering near the “High-Risk” zone, a historical indicator that often precedes market corrections and reduces the chances of a sustained bullish trend.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s risk-off signal is situated close to “High-Risk” territory, which has historically signaled a bearish phase.
BTC’s Profit–Loss sentiment has reached a rare -3 extreme, indicating a structural correction.
BTC’s -32% drawdown finds it between a correction and capitulation zone, potentially prolonging the decline within the $90,000 to $80,000 range.
Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000
CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model employs six metrics — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market cap behavior — to deliver a data-driven evaluation of market fragility. With the oscillator near 60 or in the High-Risk zone, the risk of a correction remains significant.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr also pointed out that the profit/loss score has fallen to -3, indicating a significant concentration of unprofitable UTXOs. This level historically aligns with bearish trends and extended cooling periods. The current -32% drawdown surpassed typical cycle pullbacks (-20%–25%) but remains above capitulation thresholds (-50% to -70%), positioning Bitcoin in a precarious “intermediate zone.”
Adler indicated that unless macroeconomic conditions and on-chain profitability improve, the likelihood of continued downside remains elevated, even with prices stabilizing near $90,000.
At this point, on-chain data from Glassnode provided a slight ray of hope. The analytics platform noted that Bitcoin’s recent drawdown has spurred the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, primarily driven by short-term holders (STHs).
Conversely, long-term holder (LTH) losses remain relatively subdued, a factor that often reflects core holder resilience and can sometimes cushion against deeper capitulation in prior cycles.
Related: Bitcoin price action, investor sentiment point to bullish December
$100,000 Bitcoin is a battle between the momentum and the trend
A CryptoQuant analyst described Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000 as a “psychological turning point.” A successful breakout could renew momentum, possibly aided by an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, but major round numbers frequently induce volatility and failed attempts.
The growth rate difference (Market Cap vs. Realized Cap) remains at -0.00095, demonstrating that the market cap is declining faster than the realized cap. With BTC currently trading at $91,000, the analyst leans toward structural weakness rather than trend expansion.
Bitcoin futures trader Byzantine General also observed erratic price behavior for BTC, stating,
“$BTC is struggling a bit here at this key resistance level. If it breaks through, it could fly over 100,000 very quickly, but if it actually rejects here, then we’re probably stuck in this 92,000- 82,000 range for a while.”
Related: Bitcoin accumulation trends strengthen as realized losses near $5.8B
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
