For over a decade, Bitcoin investors have followed a familiar four-year cycle to navigate market dynamics, driven by halving events, including bull runs and capitulations. As 2025 approaches, this long-established framework appears outdated, prompting analysts to search for new methods to predict Bitcoin’s (BTC) trajectory.
Some believe institutional investment is redefining the market landscape, while others emphasize the diminishing effects of halving, the emergence of AI as an alternative investment, and global liquidity trends that diverge from historical patterns. What’s evident is that Bitcoin’s behavior seems to have shifted.
In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the validity of the four-year cycle, suggesting that Bitcoin may be moving towards a more dynamic two-year cycle.
Park posits that Bitcoin’s market structure has fundamentally changed, with institutional flows driven by different incentives compared to retail investors.
Central to Park’s viewpoint is a compelling notion: shorter cycles could significantly alter investor perceptions regarding timing, volatility, and Bitcoin’s potential trajectory through 2026.
He further discusses why certain market players embrace short-term weaknesses, how liquidity patterns align with the new cycle, and the implications of this shift for future market movements.
Watch the full interview with Jeff Park on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel for an in-depth analysis of the two-year cycle theory and its potential impact on Bitcoin’s future.
