Bitcoin “Bear Case” Remains Relevant Following New Rejection at $93,500

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from the 2025 yearly open into Thursday’s Wall Street trading session as markets responded to US jobs data.

Key points:

• Robust US labor-market data does not diminish hopes for a December Fed rate cut.

• Cryptocurrency continues to diverge from stocks amid forecasts of a strong finish to 2025 for the latter.

• Bitcoin faces several key resistance levels to overcome in order to change the existing bearish trend.

Fed has “no choice” over rate cut

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated BTC price action weakening following unexpectedly low US jobless claims.

Both initial and ongoing claims were lower than anticipated, as reported by the St. Louis Fed.

Despite this sign of a strengthening labor market and economic resilience, markets doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates at its Dec. 10 meeting.

The rationale, analysts suggested, was the widening gap between risk assets and consumer strength.

“The Fed has no choice: Even with inflation at 3%, the Fed MUST lower rates to ‘rescue’ US consumers,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter stated in its latest commentary on X.

“Consumers are struggling while large cap tech stocks are soaring. More rate CUTS are coming into one of the hottest stock markets in history. Own assets or be left behind.”

A cut would theoretically support additional liquidity inflows into crypto and risk assets. As Cointelegraph reported, even the possibility of Japan increasing rates in the near future represented a contradictory move, as its central bank completed a $135 billion economic stimulus injection.

Kobeissi described the situation in Japan as a “free-for-all.”

“Japan is printing stimulus, yet raising rates? Something is broken,” it summarized alongside a report of record-high 30-year bonds.

Moving on, trading firm Mosaic Asset Company cautioned that future Fed rate cuts are not guaranteed despite market optimism.

“While market-implied odds suggest an 89% chance of a third consecutive rate cut, significant divisions are emerging regarding the future course of interest rates,” it stated in a blog post on the day.

“While that could inject volatility into the stock market, underlying market internals are evolving very favorably for a rally into year-end.”

Analysis: Bitcoin bear case “remains strong”

With the S&P 500 just 0.5% off new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins continued to appear weak.

Related: Bitcoin increasingly resembles its performance in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

Among traders, several resistance levels need to be reclaimed on the horizon.

Alongside the $93,500 yearly open, points of interest included liquidity closer to $100,000, as well as the 50-week simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

“Looking for a retest at the 50-Week SMA, but first we need to clear resistance in the $96k – $98k range,” trading resource Material Indicators informed X followers alongside a chart of Binance order-book liquidity data.

“Too early to declare this a bull market recovery. We need to overcome those resistance levels with a healthy RSI at the Weekly Close before we can have that discussion.”

In a subsequent post, Material Indicators noted that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim the yearly open thus far was an “indication that the bear thesis remains strong.”

Cointelegraph previously reported on various BTC price indicators aiming to signal an end to the market’s latest bearish phase.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.