Bitcoin “Bear Argument” Remains Valid After New $93,500 Rejection

Bitcoin (BTC) fell from the 2025 yearly open during Thursday’s Wall Street trading session as markets responded to US jobs data.

Key points:

• Robust US labor-market data does not dampen expectations for a December Fed rate cut.

• Cryptocurrency continues to deviate from stocks amid forecasts of a strong finish for the latter in 2025.

• Bitcoin has several critical resistance levels to overcome to change its bearish trend.

Fed has “no choice” regarding rate cuts

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that BTC price action weakened due to surprisingly low US jobless claims.

Both initial and ongoing claims came in under expectations, according to data from the St. Louis Fed.

Despite this indication of a strengthening labor market, which suggests economic resilience, markets doubled down on predictions that the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates at its Dec. 10 meeting.

The rationale, analyses stated, was a growing divide between risk assets and consumer strength.

“The Fed has no choice: Even with inflation at 3%, the Fed MUST reduce rates to ‘save’ US consumers,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter articulated in its latest commentary on X.

“Consumers are struggling while large-cap tech stocks are surging. More rate CUTS are destined for one of the hottest stock markets in history. Own assets or be left behind.”

A rate cut would ostensibly encourage further liquidity inflows into cryptocurrency and risk assets. As Cointelegraph noted, even the expectation of Japan raising rates in the near future posed a contradictory scenario, as its central bank concluded a $135 billion economic stimulus initiative.

Kobeissi described the situation in Japan as a “free-for-all.”

“Japan is printing stimulus, yet raising rates? Something is amiss,” it concluded alongside a print of record-high 30-year bonds.

Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset Company nonetheless cautioned that future Fed rate cuts were not guaranteed despite market optimism.

“While market-implied odds indicate an 89% probability of a third consecutive rate cut, stark divisions are appearing regarding the future path of interest rates,” it wrote in a blog post on the day.

“While that could inject volatility into the stock market, underlying market internals are evolving very favorably for a rally into year-end.”

Analysis: Bitcoin bear case “remains strong”

With the S&P 500 just 0.5% shy of its new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins continued to be perceived as weak performers.

Related: Bitcoin increasingly resembles its position in 2022: Can BTC price evade $68K?

Among traders, various resistance levels that need to be reclaimed lie ahead.

In addition to the $93,500 yearly open, points of interest included liquidity near $100,000, as well as the 50-week simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

“Looking for a retest at the 50-Week SMA, but resistance in the $96k – $98k range must be cleared first,” trading resource Material Indicators informed X followers along with a chart detailing Binance order-book liquidity data.

“Too early to declare this a bull market recovery. We need to clear those resistance levels with a healthy RSI at the Weekly Close before that discussion can take place.”

In a subsequent post, Material Indicators stated that Bitcoin’s inability to flip the yearly open thus far was an “indication that the bear thesis remains strong.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph discussed various BTC price indicators aiming to mark the end of the market’s recent bearish phase.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.