Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to surpass a significant resistance level after briefly reaching $93,300. However, BTC could not sustain its momentum, with prices falling below $85,000 on Monday.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s failure to close above $93,000 negated the possibility of a bullish trend reversal.
In the absence of new spot demand, Bitcoin may fluctuate between $80,600 and $96,000 until one of those price points is tested.
Spot Buyer Deficiency Hinders Bullish Momentum
Limited spot liquidity and shallow order-book depth are the main challenges BTC faces in trying to move past $93,000. A significant cost-basis cluster exists around $84,000, with over 400,000 BTC purchased in this zone, effectively creating an on-chain support level.
Despite previous strong accumulation, there has been a lack of active buying pressure between $84,000 and $90,000. Additionally, many short-term holders are currently at a loss compared to their average entry of $104,600, contributing to a low-liquidity environment.
According to data from CryptoQuant indicates that the Binance “Bitcoin to Stablecoin Reserve Ratio” has fallen to its lowest since 2018, hinting at an accumulation of stablecoins ready to purchase BTC. Historically, such drastic stablecoin-to-BTC ratios on exchanges have often preceded significant price rallies.
Despite weak spot demand, the stablecoin surplus suggests there is potential buying power to drive a surge, albeit currently untapped.
Related: BTC price analysis: Bitcoin could crash another 50%
Bitcoin May Stay Range-Bound Before Next FOMC Meeting
Bitcoin is currently caught between $96,000 (the upper range) and $80,600–$84,000 (the on-chain cost-basis floor). Liquidity clusters remain on both sides, meaning a breakout in either direction could result in sharp movements.
From a bullish perspective, a retest of the lower range near $80,600–$84,000 could be beneficial. This would allow BTC to absorb liquidity on the downside, establishing a base for a potential upward move.
On the contrary, an immediate retest of $93,000–$96,000 without accumulating liquidity below might lead to a re-entry of sellers, heightening the risk of further downward correction in alignment with the broader trend.
Given the present circumstances, a period of sideways movement seems increasingly probable ahead of the forthcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 9–10. With the market awaiting indications about US interest-rate policy, traders may choose to remain inactive rather than pursue volatile movements.
Related: BTC price dips under $84K as Bitcoin faces ‘pivotal’ week for 2025 candle
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a choice.
