Good Morning, Asia. Here’s today’s market news:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, your daily recap of notable stories from U.S. hours along with market analysis and movements. For a comprehensive look at U.S. markets, refer to CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
A recent report from CryptoQuant indicates that Strategy is quietly bracing for a prolonged BTC downturn.
This viewpoint contrasts with prediction markets that still anticipate the company’s actions to mirror those of 2021.
The latest weekly report from CryptoQuant points out that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury firm is shifting focus from aggressive BTC accumulation to safeguarding its balance sheet, which is underscored by maintaining a separate USD reserve and acknowledging the possibility of hedging or selling during challenging circumstances.
Despite this transition, Polymarket odds for a bitcoin sale remain low for this year’s first quarter, while the expectations for regular small purchases are still high.
Furthermore, Polymarket traders continue to predict regular MSTR purchases as a likely occurrence, even as the scale of these buys diminishes.
The market sees only a 40%–45% likelihood of a purchase exceeding 1,000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests that these cosmetic top-ups are becoming commonplace. With monthly accumulation plummeting over 90% from last year, traders anticipate small buys that bolster branding without impacting supply or regional liquidity.
Strategy’s average purchase size has dropped from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their weakest since mid-June, bitcoin treasury companies are no longer absorbing significant supply in the current market.
Collectively, a reduction in treasury buying, diminished DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply landscape for crypto in 2026.
Whether BTC can regain its upward momentum depends on new sources of demand emerging to replace the corporate accumulation that characterized the last cycle.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin rebounded from an initial dip to $91,800, stabilizing around $93,000, although its two-day 10% rally is stalling beneath resistance at the 2025 yearly open near $93,400.
ETH: Ether rose above $3,100, reaching a two-week high close to $3,200 after a 3.5% daily gain.
Gold: Gold experienced a slight decline to just above $4,200 as traders remained cautious ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data; however, renewed tensions in Ukraine and a softer dollar outlook could pave the way for a rebound.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks showed mixed performances on Thursday; however, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix climbed approximately 1.3% following positive U.S. jobs data that bolstered Wall Street and raised hopes for a Fed rate cut next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Bitcoin Miners Pursued After Fraudulently Utilizing $1 Billion in Electricity from Malaysia’s Grid (Bloomberg)
- U.S. Debt Expansion Will Propel Crypto’s Growth, BlackRock States in AI Report (CoinDesk)
