Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipated to experience a “parabolic” shift as a traditional volatility indicator reaches new all-time lows.
Key points:
The Bollinger BandWidth indicator for Bitcoin suggests the potential for a BTC price surge similar to that of 2023 as the year comes to a close.
Despite a recent decline in BTC prices, BandWidth did not signal a “red” event.
Traders are seeking more confirmation of a sustainable market rally.
Bitcoin Bollinger BandWidth prepares for a “parabolic leg up”
In an X thread on Wednesday, macro strategist Gert van Lagen highlighted a critical signal from Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth.
The Bollinger BandWidth gauges the percentage difference between the upper and lower Bollinger bands, which serve as a leading indicator for BTC price volatility.
Data from sources like Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that this difference is at a historically low level on monthly timeframes.
Historically, BandWidth rarely dips below 100 on its scale, but when it does, Bitcoin typically reacts sharply.
“Every time this condition triggers, Bitcoin tends to respond with a direct parabolic leg up,” Van Lagen remarked.
“No red signals were observed in the preceding months…”
An accompanying chart illustrates prior instances of similar parabolic results. The last “green” signal occurred at the beginning of November 2023, after which BTC/USD saw a twofold increase in just four months.
Van Lagen further discussed his future Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a final surge to new heights before the onset of the next bear market.
“This pattern is akin to GOOGL just before its ultimate blow-off wave prior to the 2008 financial crisis—characterized by a series of lower highs on the Bollinger Bandwidth that, once broken, exacerbate the following bearish high time frame volatility,” he expressed.
Is it too early to celebrate?
Bitcoin traders have remained skeptical regarding market strength this week despite early signs of recovery.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘more reliable’ RSI variant reaches bear market bottom zone at $87K
$BTC 1W
Still just a breakdown & retest scenario until proven otherwise. Still going to plan.
Volume is low, MACD/RSI needed a reset on 1D and below, + we dropped 45k with no bounce.
I wouldn’t get loud on calling a bottom quite yet. https://t.co/VW0b0VF8IF pic.twitter.com/Rerl1KTvOW
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) December 2, 2025
On Wednesday, BTC/USD reached its highest levels in over two weeks, approaching $94,000 amid rumors regarding a pro-crypto chair at the US Federal Reserve.
“Price has now formed a higher high and a higher low, technically bringing the market structure back to bullish on this timeframe,” trader Daan Crypto Trades acknowledged in a post on X.
“However, to genuinely support this move, I need to see it maintain up above the current price level.”
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the current price zone is crucial for the yearly candle in 2025, with BTC/USD opening the year at $93,500.
“Bitcoin has a full month to achieve a 2% increase to close the month above the ~$93,500 Four Year Cycle level and end the year with a green candle,” noted trader and analyst Rekt Capital on Tuesday.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.
