Bitcoin’s surge has slowed down since June, resulting in prices remaining mostly stable above $100,000. This scenario has strengthened the perspective of some analysts who adhere to the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle, cautioning that a challenging bear market could be ahead.
Nevertheless, a long-term indicator presents a glimmer of optimism for bullish investors – the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently estimated around $54,750, which is still considerably below BTC’s 2021 peak of approximately $70,000, as per TradingView data.
You may be curious about the significance of this. It’s crucial because previous bull markets have often concluded when the 200-week SMA approached or matched the prior cycle’s peak price. This occurred at the end of 2017 and between late 2021 and early 2022.
Currently, since the 200-week SMA remains well beneath the 2021 price high, historical trends suggest that bitcoin might still be in its broader bull market phase despite recent short-term declines.
While this “hopium” is tantalizing for optimistic investors, it’s essential to note that it has only manifested twice in bitcoin’s relatively brief history of a decade and during periods when institutional involvement was very low.
Consequently, drawing definitive conclusions based solely on this data may seem narrow, especially from the viewpoint of stock investors who depend on decades of market data to identify reliable trends.
