Earlier this month, Bitcoin experienced a turbulent futures deleveraging that reset market positioning but maintained the broader bullish trend, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. During his appearance on the Milk Road podcast on October 20, Moreno expressed optimism that fresh highs are possible if spot demand stabilizes and the macro uncertainties from US–China tariff discussions are resolved. He pointed out that a crucial inflection point to watch is Bitcoin reclaiming its on-chain traders’ realized price around $115,000. “Resistance will be around $115K,” he mentioned. “If the price surpasses that… we can expect a range of $150–$195K. On the downside… it’s roughly $100K.”
Bitcoin Bull Run Is Reset
Moreno described the deleveraging on October 10 as the largest dollar liquidation in Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals history, with roughly $20 billion in open interest wiped out in one day, causing total open interest to drop from an all-time high near $78 billion to approximately $58 billion, later lingering closer to $56 billion. He observed that in unit terms, this event was “slightly less than the FTX liquidations,” but emphasized that the dollar magnitude reflected today’s larger derivatives base rather than indicating a structural break.
He noted that the relative resilience of the spot price—Bitcoin “only fell to… $110,000” that day, after briefly dipping to “$103,000” two days earlier—highlighted that demand and the cycle’s price floor are solidly above previous cycles, even amidst forced unwinds. “This doesn’t indicate a bearish market,” Moreno stated, adding that buyers still absorbed supply quickly enough to prevent a trend break.
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Before the crash, CryptoQuant’s composite “bull score” of ten on-chain indicators had already dipped from around 80 to 40 by October 6 as momentum slowed and spot demand began to retract. Following the liquidation, the score dropped towards 20, which Moreno referred to as “on the bearish side currently.” He clarified that on-chain metrics serve more as risk indicators than price predictors: “It signals to you the risks… when all these metrics… align to indicate increasing risks, that’s when you need to be more cautious.”
Several data points indicated that the market was stretched heading into the shock. Total crypto open interest reached a record near $78 billion just before the event, a classic sign of over-leverage. Profit-taking surged beyond $3 billion in early October as spot prices approached the previous all-time high in the $124K–$126K range, aligning with CryptoQuant’s “profit–pause–push” framework, where aggressive realizations precede cooling periods.
Moreno also pointed out that spot demand shifted from growth to contraction around October 6—days before the tariff headlines and the liquidation—helping to explain the deteriorating risk backdrop even without the macro trigger. “We were beginning to observe significant profit-taking… not solely due to macro events,” he said.
Who’s Selling, Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
The flow of coins during the downturn suggests a rotation rather than a widespread buyer strike. Moreno stated that “OG” whales and early miners—cohorts he estimates hold around 600,000 BTC excluding Satoshi—resumed their distribution as prices crossed $100K, a common trend in every cycle as supply shifts to new holders. Institutional demand, in contrast, remained consistent.
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Since ETF custodial wallets typically contain between 100 and 1,000 BTC per address for security, CryptoQuant tracks the “dolphins” cohort as a proxy. “That group… is still buying,” Moreno said, additionally noting that whales increased their accumulation “during this correction,” with year-over-year holdings growing “above trend.” Liquidity conditions support the bid: stablecoin market caps, led by USDT, continued to grow throughout the downturn, a trend he wouldn’t expect “if we are… in a bear market.”
Altcoins, meanwhile, displayed greater fragility during the shock. Transactions moving altcoins to exchanges surged to year-to-date highs amid the liquidation, indicating a rush for exits across low-liquidity assets. Moreno cautioned that this cycle has been particularly selective among sectors rather than a blanket “alt season,” reiterating a developing theme for 2025: robust protocol activity and fee generation no longer automatically lead to token outperformance without clear economic ties. “Even if the protocol performs well doesn’t guarantee that the token will do well,” he noted.
What To Expect From Q4 And 2026
The macro environment remains unpredictable for Q4. Moreno believes that expectations for rate cuts are mostly accounted for—“the market has already… priced what the Fed will do”—and that only a larger-than-expected cut would serve as a new positive catalyst. In contrast, the US–China tariff situation is of utmost importance. “If we can resolve that… a very positive Q4 could follow,” he noted, explaining that tariff headlines were the immediate trigger for October’s deleveraging and also contributed to a more significant demand contraction earlier this year, in March–May. Until clarity resumes and spot demand picks up pace, he anticipates fluctuations around well-defined levels.
This places Bitcoin between a tactical resistance and a psychological floor. Moreno identifies the traders’ on-chain realized price near $115,000 as the first resistance point, while the $100,000 level—where short-term holders are sitting on about a 10% unrealized loss—acts as the downside threshold where forced selling typically subsides in bullish markets.
A decisive recovery above $115K would, in his view, validate a rally towards $150,000–$195,000. “We’re not too distant from the previous all-time high,” he remarked, adding that new peaks in Q4 are feasible if the tariff disputes resolve. Regarding the cycle peak, he is cautious about an extended frenzy into 2026 or 2027, citing CryptoQuant’s declining intensity in bull indicators even as prices have risen. “I would not anticipate… anything beyond Q1 2026,” he stated, acknowledging that timing market tops is inherently uncertain. “We might all be mistaken.”
As of the latest update, BTC was trading at $108,187.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
