Analysts indicate that Bitcoin is free from “overbought conditions” and is poised for a consistent upward trajectory, even after reaching a new all-time high on Monday.
On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) soared to a peak of over $126,000, which CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain noted on Wednesday, “places it roughly halfway through its four-year price cycle.”
“Even with this impressive performance, technical analysis indicates that the price remains within a stable range, far from the overbought conditions typical of historical peaks,” the statement added.
Bitcoin demonstrates “upward momentum”
Arab Chain observed that Bitcoin “seems to be in a phase of balanced upward momentum,” as its 30-day moving average—indicating the average closing price over the last month—sits just below $116,000, suggesting a steady upward trend without significant fluctuations.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s 30-day standard deviation, measuring return variability, is “relatively low at $4,540, indicating reduced volatility, a state that usually precedes significant price movements, especially upward, if accompanied by renewed liquidity inflows.”
The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin typically reaches its cycle peak within 600 days following its halving, an event that reduces mining rewards by 50%. If this trend holds, Bitcoin is now “in the critical window that has historically led to major bull market peaks.”
“Stars are aligned” for record Q4 ETF inflows: Bitwise
In a related forecast, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicted on Tuesday that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will experience a surge in inflows during the fourth quarter.
According to Hougan, the rise in Bitcoin’s price is one factor driving the expectation that US Bitcoin ETFs will “set a record” in Q4, potentially attracting more capital in 2025 than the $36 billion garnered in their record-setting inaugural year.
The ETFs have accumulated $22.5 billion in inflows over the first nine months of the year, putting them on track to finish 2025 with around $30 billion in total flows.
“Here’s a hot take: I’m not concerned,” Hougan stated. “From my perspective, the stars are aligned for a very strong Q4 for flows—more than enough to achieve a new record.”
He emphasized that the “most fundamental” reason he anticipates high inflows by the conclusion of 2025 is his “bullish outlook on Bitcoin returns for Q4.”
“Though it may seem counterintuitive, higher prices often generate increased demand for Bitcoin ETFs as media coverage, companies, and everyday investors shift their focus to Bitcoin,” Hougan remarked.
He pointed out that in every quarter where Bitcoin experienced double-digit growth, Bitcoin ETFs similarly attracted “double-digit billions in inflows.”
“Debasement trade,” platform approvals present a promising Q4
Hougan noted that his forecast is also influenced by a broader range of investors gaining access to invest in ETFs as wealth managers broaden their offerings and traders seek assets that benefit from a weakening US dollar.
Related: Bitcoin rebounds toward range highs as data highlights ‘real liquidity’
Wall Street anticipates “The Debasement Trade” to favor well-performing assets as the value of the US dollar declines, Hougan explained, mentioning that both gold and Bitcoin have had strong performances this year.
“Why does this matter? Because when advisors meet with their clients for annual reviews, they desire their year-end printouts to display the most successful investments. The only way to achieve that is by buying gold and Bitcoin.”
This debasement trade will be bolstered by some of the largest wealth managers “finally changing” their policies to include Bitcoin ETFs, said Hougan.
He referenced a Morgan Stanley report released earlier this month that guided 16,000 advisors, suggesting they could “flexibly allocate to cryptocurrency as part of their multiasset portfolio” with a recommendation of up to 4% allocation for “risk-tolerant investors.”
Hougan concluded by stating that Q4 “is off to a great start,” with the ETFs drawing in $3.5 billion in net flows during the first four trading days.
“We have 64 more days to gather another $10 billion,” he predicted. “I believe we will achieve that and even more.”
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