Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs have broadened access, though flows remain variable.
SOL’s infrastructure is established: CME futures are operational, with options expected on Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s updated standards now permit swifter listings of spot-commodity ETPs beyond BTC and ETH.
For SOL to exceed ETH, it will require consistent creations, effective hedging, genuine on-chain usage, and ongoing developer activity.
Indeed, Ether (ETH) has gained an advantage in the ETF competition: Spot Ether ETFs commenced trading on July 23, 2024, drawing around $107 million in net inflows on the first day and paving a mainstream route for investors via brokers and retirement accounts.
Nonetheless, Solana’s (SOL) infrastructure is advancing. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options anticipated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission implemented “generic listing standards” that simplify the process for exchanges to list spot commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs), potentially expanding beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Furthermore, internationally, SOL is already being traded in regulated investment structures through Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With this access already established, the critical question is whether a US SOL ETF can generate enduring demand that positions Solana to outperform Ether in terms of both price and fundamentals.
Before addressing that, let’s clarify the context.
What ETH ETFs changed, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs debuted in the US on July 23, 2024. On their inaugural day, they recorded roughly $1 billion in trading volume and about $107 million in net inflows, creating a mainstream access point for investors such as registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still lagged behind Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Since then, flows have been cyclical. Through mid-2025, ETH has experienced phases of net creations interspersed with outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, reports indicated renewed strength, with multi-week inflows into Ether products that boosted total crypto assets under management (AUM). In essence, ETFs have enhanced access, but they haven’t eliminated market cycles.
During certain periods in 2025, Ether outperformed numerous large-cap crypto assets, bolstered by steady ETF demand and observable institutional and treasury accumulation. This trend implies that while ETFs do not modify the underlying network fundamentals, they can impact which asset leads during times of capital rotation.
One design aspect remains significant: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, which constrains their income potential compared to holding native ETH directly. The SEC is actively evaluating proposals to permit staking, but as of October 2025, decisions across various issuers have been postponed. If staking is allowed — even partially — it could alter the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know? US exchanges provide an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds, enabling traders to view where an ETF is expected to be priced throughout the day.
Solana today: Usage, growth and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter at the forefront of all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, data revealed Solana equaled the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s — strong indicators of usage intensity.
In January 2025, Solana handled $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, indicating a significant recovery from the lows of late 2024. The supply of USDC on Solana is approximately $9.35 billion, while the total supply of stablecoins on the network surged from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Nevertheless, Ethereum continues to dominate the value transferred by stablecoins year-to-date — about 60% as of mid-2025 — indicating that while Solana’s advances are significant, they are not yet dominant.
Cost and speed remain pivotal attractions: Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have positioned Solana as a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activities — becoming a focal point of 2025’s memecoin surge. This volume bolsters liquidity but also concentrates flows in speculative areas.
Two structural risks warrant attention.
Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, necessitated a coordinated restart and a client patch (v1.17.20).
Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have mentioned Solana as an unregistered security — a contention the Solana Foundation disputes. Developments in this area remain highly dependent on policy.
Did you know? CME intends to offer daily, monthly, and quarterly expirations for SOL options, broadening hedging tools for ETF market participants.
What a US SOL ETF would likely change
Access and flows: Approval would allow SOL to enter mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered investment advisers (RIAs), decreasing operational barriers for allocators and expanding the buyer pool beyond crypto-native platforms.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives provide authorized participants (APs) and market makers with the means to hedge creations and redemptions, as well as execute basis or relative-value trades. These mechanisms help maintain ETF prices close to their NAV and bolster initial liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” broaden the avenues beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors adhere to the rules.
Ex-US demand signals: Currently, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) demonstrate that regulated investment products for Solana can garner investor interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies are excluded from Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, prompting issuers to utilize ETPs instead. That is why “ETP” appears on SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL actually outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A prompt US spot SOL ETF with robust early net creations could surpass Ether in total returns.
Two key drivers:
Broader access: RIAs and brokerages would gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.
Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and increased capacity as APs hedge utilizing CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Even with a successful SOL ETF launch, flows may revert to tracking general risk sentiment. Ether retains a structural institutional advantage — owing to its longer history, deeper allocator familiarity, and established ecosystem. Weekly fluctuations in crypto fund flows illustrate how relative performance might be inconsistent rather than decisively favoring SOL.
The bear case
Delays or eligibility uncertainties under the US SEC framework could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity may decrease, and APs could manage smaller inventories despite available derivatives, restricting creations. In such a scenario, Solana could underperform Ether, which already benefits from a more developed distribution.
It’s also important to note that some regulators have raised concerns about diminished individual scrutiny under the generic listing standards, introducing policy uncertainties for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to keep an eye on
If a US spot SOL ETF gains approval, the unfolding developments will be critical.
The primary indicators to monitor are clear. Do creations and redemptions reflect lasting demand? Does CME open interest and options activity enhance liquidity? Do on-chain metrics such as active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlements, and developer growth maintain momentum beyond speculative bursts? If these indicators align positively, the chances of SOL outperforming ETH significantly increase.
A Solana ETF would eliminate a major access obstacle and arrive with more robust market infrastructure than previous cycles. However, Ether has already demonstrated its ability to attract billions through ETFs while anchoring institutional discussions.
ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows — albeit cyclical — showcase its resilience. Whether Solana can genuinely outperform will hinge less on speculation and more on whether ETF inflows convert into sustained on-chain adoption.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
