Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs have created opportunities, but capital flows still fluctuate cyclically.
SOL’s infrastructure is established: CME futures are operational, with options expected on Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s updated generic standards enable quicker listings for spot-commodity ETPs beyond just BTC and ETH.
For SOL to excel beyond ETH, it requires ongoing creations, effective hedging, genuine on-chain usage, and strong developer activity.
Indeed, Ether (ETH) is ahead in the ETF landscape: Spot Ether ETFs began trading on July 23, 2024, bringing in about $107 million in net inflows on the first day and providing a mainstream avenue for investors via brokers and retirement accounts.
However, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is rapidly advancing. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options anticipated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission introduced “generic listing standards” that streamline the process for exchanges to list spot commodity exchange-traded products (ETPs), potentially expanding the options beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Moreover, outside the US, SOL is already available in regulated investment wrappers through Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With this access established, the real question is whether a US SOL ETF can generate sufficient demand to enable Solana to surpass Ether in both valuation and fundamentals.
Before exploring that, let’s establish the context.
What ETH ETFs changed, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs initiated trading in the US on July 23, 2024. On their debut, they tallied around $1 billion in trading volume and roughly $107 million in net inflows, creating a mainstream pathway for investors such as registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. Despite this, it lagged behind Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Subsequent flows have been cyclical. By mid-2025, ETH saw phases of net creations interrupted by outflows. Reports by late August and mid-September 2025 indicated renewed vigor, with sustained inflows into Ether products boosting total crypto assets under management (AUM). In summary, while ETFs improved access, they did not eliminate cyclical market behavior.
At various times in 2025, Ether outpaced many prominent crypto assets, driven by consistent ETF demand and noticeable institutional and treasury purchases. This trend reflects that while ETFs do not fundamentally alter network dynamics, they can influence which asset leads during capital rotation phases.
A crucial design choice remains: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, limiting their income prospects compared to holding native ETH directly. The SEC is currently evaluating proposals to permit staking, but as of October 2025, it has postponed decisions from several issuers. If staking is approved, even partially, it might alter the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know? US exchanges publish an indicative net asset value (iNAV) approximately every 15 seconds, enabling traders to gauge the intraday pricing of an ETF.
Solana today: Usage, growth and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana produced over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third straight quarter as the leader among all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, data indicated that Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s — strong signals of usage intensity.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, recovering sharply from late 2024 lows. The USDC supply on Solana is around $9.35 billion, while the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025, surging from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Despite this, Ethereum still accounted for the majority of stablecoin movement year-to-date — approximately 60% as of mid-2025 — indicating that Solana’s uptrend is significant but not yet predominant.
Cost and speed are key attractions: Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity — and a focal point during 2025’s memecoin surge. This volume fosters liquidity but also concentrates flows in speculative areas.
Two structural risks are worth monitoring.
Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, necessitated a coordinated restart and a client patch (v1.17.20).
Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have identified Solana as an unregistered security — a classification the Solana Foundation disputes. Outcomes in this arena remain heavily influenced by policy changes.
Did you know? CME plans daily, monthly and quarterly expirations for SOL options, broadening hedging options for ETF market participants.
What a US SOL ETF would likely change
Access and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels accessible by registered investment advisers (RIAs), reducing operational friction for investors and expanding the buyer base beyond crypto-native platforms.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives grant authorized participants (APs) and market makers the ability to hedge creations and redemptions, facilitating basis or relative-value trading. These mechanisms help maintain ETF prices close to their NAV and support initial liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” broaden the pathway beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors comply with the guidelines.
Ex-US demand signals: Current examples, like Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL), illustrate that regulated investment vehicles for Solana can attract significant investor interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs; therefore, issuers utilize ETPs instead. This explains the appearance of “ETP” on SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL actually outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A timely US spot SOL ETF with strong initial net creations could surpass Ether in overall returns.
Two crucial factors:
Broader access: RIAs and brokerages gain exposure under the new generic listing standards.
Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and increased capacity as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Even with a robust launch for a SOL ETF, flows may revert to aligning with general risk sentiment. Ether holds a structural institutional advantage due to its established history, deeper allocator familiarity, and well-developed ecosystem. Weekly fund flow variations in crypto indicate that relative performance may fluctuates rather than decisively favoring SOL.
The bear case
Delays in timelines or eligibility concerns under the US SEC framework could dampen optimism. Alternatively, liquidity might weaken, leading APs to maintain smaller portfolios despite the presence of derivatives, which would result in Solana underperforming Ether, already benefiting from a more mature distribution network.
Moreover, it’s worth mentioning that some regulators have raised concerns regarding diminished case-by-case review under the generic listing standards, introducing policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to keep an eye on
If a US spot SOL ETF gains approval, the subsequent developments could be pivotal.
The main indicators to monitor are clear-cut. Are creations and redemptions indicative of sustained demand? Is there growth in CME open interest and options activity to enhance liquidity? Do on-chain metrics such as active users, fee revenue, stablecoin transactions, and developer expansion remain consistent beyond speculative spikes? If these indicators align, the likelihood of SOL outpacing ETH increases significantly.
A Solana ETF would eliminate a significant access barrier and come with a more robust market infrastructure than previous cycles. However, Ether has already demonstrated its ability to generate billions through ETFs while maintaining its position in institutional discussions.
ETH continues to serve as the benchmark, and its inflows — though cyclical — showcase its resilience. Whether Solana genuinely outperforms will depend less on hype and more on whether ETF inflows lead to lasting on-chain adoption.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
