Essential Insights:
Bitcoin’s rally driven by institutions has pushed retail-oriented memecoins to the sidelines.
Leading memecoins, including DOGE, PEPE, and TRUMP, show potential for a short-term rebound in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached new highs exceeding $125,000 over the weekend, which triggered a rise in prominent altcoins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB (BNB).
In contrast, memecoins have struggled to keep up with this year’s overall crypto market surge.
DOGE, TRUMP and other memecoins face declines
Bitcoin has increased by over 32% year-to-date, aligning with a broader rally across risk markets amid a weakening US dollar. BTC has also experienced steady demand from US-based spot ETFs and global corporations.
Conversely, memecoins, which previously served as a measure of retail speculation, have seen declines.
This includes the leading memecoin, Dogecoin (DOGE), which has fallen by 20.20% year-to-date, alongside Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Pepe (PEPE), which have dropped 41.41% and 48.55%, respectively, in the same timeframe.
Solana-based Bonk (BONK) is down 32.80%, and the Official Trump (TRUMP) token, launched earlier this year, has decreased by over 83% from its peak. AICell has plunged by more than 96%.
Significant decrease in new Solana memecoin mints
The emergence of new memecoins from Solana-based launchpads has sharply declined since July, as per data from Dune Analytics.
At the peak of mid-2025, Solana was minting nearly 400 new meme tokens daily. By late August, this number fell below 100, indicating a decrease of over 75% in retail involvement and speculative capital.
This slowdown indicates a waning retail interest in memecoins, with traders increasingly gravitating towards prediction markets, according to data compiled by Analyst MovieTime Dune.
During the week of Sept. 21–28, Solana memecoins had a volume of $864.8 million compared to $1.54 billion across prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
This indicates nearly 1.8 times higher activity, highlighting how the emergence of institutional narratives and alternative speculative venues is attracting retail attention away from the memecoin sector.
Will top memecoins bounce back in Q4?
DOGE appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern following a drop of over 70% from its local peak.
A breakout above the upper trendline of this triangle near $0.28 might confirm a bullish continuation pattern, potentially targeting $0.41, a 60% increase from current levels, by the end of the year.
Related: What’s the potential upside for DOGE as the first Dogecoin ETF launches?
On the other hand, a drop below the lower trendline could push DOGE toward the ascending trendline support, in line with the 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) around $0.195.
PEPE, another high-volume memecoin, is forming a similar bullish reversal pattern, with a target price of $0.00002230 by year-end, representing a 126% increase from current levels.
Meanwhile, TRUMP’s current price is testing resistance near its multi-month descending trendline around $8.30–$8.35, which coincides with the 20-day EMA.
A breakout in this region could lead to the $9.26–$10.75 Fib retracement area — the latter coinciding with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) by year-end.
Failure to surpass resistance may result in a pullback towards the accumulation zone at $7.30.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading activities carry risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
