Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot Bitcoin listed in the US kicked off October, a traditionally bullish month, with their second-highest week of inflows since their inception, reflecting a resurgence in investor confidence.
In the past week, spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw cumulative net positive inflows amounting to $3.24 billion, closely approaching their all-time high of $3.38 billion from the week ending November 22, 2024, according to data from SoSoValue.
This figure represents a significant recovery from the previous week’s outflows of $902 million. Analysts attributed this shift to rising expectations for a further US interest rate reduction, which has boosted sentiment toward riskier assets.
“The increasing anticipation of another US interest rate reduction has led to a ‘sentiment shift,’ encouraging renewed investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs and driving four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion,” stated Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, in an interview with Cointelegraph. “At the current rates, Q4 inflows could remove over 100,000 BTC from circulation—more than double the new issuance.”
He added, “The acceleration in ETF absorption while long-term holders ease distribution is contributing to a stronger support base for BTC, particularly near key technical levels.”
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Ongoing ETF inflows could significantly benefit Bitcoin this October, dubbed “Uptober” by crypto enthusiasts, as it often ranks as the second-best month historically for Bitcoin’s average returns.
This week’s inflow of $3.2 billion temporarily elevated Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, reaching over a six-week high not seen since August 14, as indicated by TradingView data.
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin’s rise above $120,000 could lead to a “very quick move” beyond the $150,000 all-time peak before the conclusion of 2025, as he shared in an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore.
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Uptober brings optimism for new Bitcoin peaks
Bitcoin ETFs are now perceived as the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the cryptocurrency market, indicating a possible breakout this October, Kalchev noted.
“Uptober is manifesting clear indicators of an early Q4 breakout in the crypto market, propelled by ETF inflows, seasonal momentum, and accommodating macroeconomic conditions.”
However, the momentum for Bitcoin will hinge on various pivotal events scheduled for next week, including an upcoming speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors are also keenly awaiting the postponed US jobs report; however, its release timeline is contingent on the duration of the ongoing US government shutdown, marking the first such situation since 2018.
In the meantime, expectations are high for Bitcoin’s performance this month, as October stands as its second-best month historically.
According to CoinGlass data, BTC has averaged monthly returns of approximately 20% in October, 46% in November, and around 4% in December.
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