Although Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may not unfold exactly as it has previously, the concept is far from obsolete, according to a cryptocurrency executive.
“When discussing the four-year cycle, it’s quite probable that we’ll observe some variation of a cycle continuing,” stated Saad Ahmed, head of the APAC region at the crypto exchange Gemini, during an interview with Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore.
“This phenomenon arises because people become overly enthusiastic and extend themselves too much, leading to a crash, followed by a correction towards an equilibrium,” Ahmed explained.
Ahmed also noted that an increase in institutional participation in the crypto market might help stabilize some of the volatility. “You might see a reduction in some volatility, but a cycle will still be present since it’s fundamentally driven by human emotions,” he remarked.
The ongoing debate about the relevance of the four-year cycle to Bitcoin continues to be a hot topic within the crypto community.
On August 21, the crypto analytics firm Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin’s recent price movements might still align with its historical four-year halving cycle.
October may signal Bitcoin’s cycle peak if historical patterns are observed
According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s cycle peak might occur this month if past trends hold true.
In July, he suggested that if the cycle mirrors that of 2020, a market peak could be expected in October, roughly 550 days post the April 2024 halving.
“We have a very limited window for price expansion remaining,” Rekt stated.
Related: Bitcoin pursues new highs as crypto market cap surpasses $4.21T
Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) surged by 11.5% over the week, rising to $123,850, just shy of its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s price adhering to historical cycles.
“I believe 2026 will be an upward year,” Hougan remarked on July 26. “Overall, I think we’re in for an optimistic few years,” he added.
October 1 marked the start of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s most robust quarter since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.
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