Key takeaways:
The XRP rally is well-positioned to reach $3.98–$4.32 this month following an RSI golden cross.
Profit-taking remains minimal, indicating stronger holder confidence ahead of October’s ETF announcements.
XRP (XRP) has reclaimed the critical $3 mark, sparking speculation about a potential significant move. A recurring technical signal on its multiday chart is lending support to this bullish scenario.
RSI golden cross indicates 30%-40% rise for XRP
XRP’s 3-day relative strength index (RSI) has recently produced a golden cross, with the indicator exceeding its 14-period moving average. This suggests a shift in momentum favoring the bulls.
For example, XRP’s price surged by over 75% a month after the RSI golden cross in June. Similarly, it increased by more than 28% last April and an astonishing 575% in November of last year following similar signals.
The latest crossover occurs as XRP tests support at its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), a level that has consistently coincided with past RSI golden cross rallies.
The combination of the $3 breakout, 50-period EMA support, and RSI crossover enhances XRP’s likelihood of climbing toward the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.39 in October, representing an 11% increase from current levels.
The XRP/USD pair could advance further toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level near $4.32, indicating about a 40% rise if it decisively closes above $3.39 by October or November.
Related: XRP price: Why October will be the most bullish month of 2025
A further bullish setup, identified as a descending triangle breakout, points to a $3.98 target — a 30% rise from present prices — as XRP moves above the upper trendline of the pattern, reinforcing the RSI golden cross signal.
Reduced profit-taking in XRP
The recent rally in XRP above $3 hasn’t prompted the extreme profit-taking associated with past bull market peaks, according to on-chain data.
The share of circulating XRP that is trading above its cost basis — the percent supply in profit — has stayed elevated and relatively stable since the November 2024 breakout, according to Glassnode data.
In previous cycles, spikes toward 90% to 100% profit levels often coincided with swift sell-offs and sharp declines. However, this time, XRP holders seem to be showing more patience.
This stability implies that long-term investors are less inclined to cash out soon, indicating stronger conviction in the ongoing trend, especially with multiple XRP ETF decisions approaching in October.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
