Key insights:
Bitcoin surged 14% over the week, targeting $124,000 amid a potential US government shutdown.
Onchain metrics revealed a $1.6 billion buying boom and a Coinbase premium gap of $92, indicating heightened US demand.
Experts anticipate resistance around $130,000, with possibilities for price discovery in the upcoming week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a strong rally this past week, increasing 14% to just below $124,000 from a low near $108,600 last Friday. This upward movement could propel Bitcoin into fresh price-discovery ranges above $125,500, coinciding with the total cryptocurrency market cap surpassing $4.21 trillion, emphasizing the robustness of this rally.
A surprising factor contributing to this price surge is the US government shutdown and the market’s apparent disregard for it. As federal agencies furlough employees and data releases face delays, investor uncertainty is increasing.
In this context, Bitcoin has benefited directly, rising 8% since the shutdown, with traders adjusting positions amidst unclear policy directions. The government halt has further complicated the Federal Reserve’s decisions, as inflation and jobs data might be postponed, leading to increased speculative flows into crypto.
Bitfinex analysts commented to Cointelegraph,
”The organic nature of Bitcoin’s rise toward a new all-time high is evident. We believe that Trump’s suggestion of possibly considering a stimulus check for every citizen funded by tariffs could also drive Bitcoin’s price higher, similar to what occurred after the Covid stimulus checks. Additionally, continuous ETF inflows provide strong support.”
Referring to macroeconomic conditions in the US, analysts noted, “Macro conditions are favorable, with easing inflation and a more dovish Federal Reserve stance supporting risk asset attractiveness. […] If inflows stay consistent and macro data doesn’t yield surprising increases, the route to new all-time highs in Q4 seems well-supported.”
Onchain BTC buying momentum rises
Onchain data verified that the surge is fueled by substantial demand. Analyst Maartunn reported a spike in taker buy volume exceeding $1.6 billion within one hour across all exchanges.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which gauges price variances between Coinbase and Binance, increased to $91.86. Analyst Burak Kesmeci noted that US investors are willing to pay nearly $92 more per Bitcoin on Coinbase, indicating robust US demand.
However, this is the highest premium seen since mid-August, a point where bullish momentum has usually waned in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin positioned for a squeeze as open interest reaches $88B, raising ‘flush’ concerns
Price discovery expectations for next week
With Bitcoin nearing record highs, analysts anticipate price discovery in the forthcoming week. Crypto trader Jelle observed,
“$120,000 is flipping to support today. Maintain it over the weekend, and I expect price discovery to kick in as soon as next week.”
Trader Rekt Capital characterized this phase as “Phase 3 Price Discovery” of the ongoing cycle, the breakout phase where new highs are typically set.
Analyst Skew noted that while demand remains strong, significant sell orders are concentrated around $130,000, marking it as the next vital resistance level. The analyst also emphasized the notable US inflows via Coinbase and substantial “risk-on” positioning on Binance, indicating that the upcoming daily closes will play a crucial role in establishing whether BTC can maintain its momentum.
Related: Stablecoins surpass $300B in market cap, experiencing 47% growth year-to-date
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should conduct thorough research when making decisions.
