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Bitcoin surged 14% in just one week, setting sights on $124,000 amid a potential US government shutdown.
Onchain metrics revealed a $1.6 billion increase in purchasing activity and a $92 Coinbase premium gap, indicating strong demand from US investors.
Analysts forecast resistance around $130,000, suggesting potential price discovery in the upcoming week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant upward movement over the past week, rising 14% to nearly reach $124,000 from a low of around $108,600 last Friday. This upward trend may lead Bitcoin into new price-discovery territory above $125,500, as the total cryptocurrency market cap exceeded $4.21 trillion, showcasing the robust nature of this rally.
An unexpected driver for this price increase is the ongoing US government shutdown, which markets seem to be overlooking. As federal agencies furlough personnel and economic data releases are delayed, investor anxiety rises.
In this environment, Bitcoin has benefited directly, climbing 8% since the shutdown commenced, as traders adjust strategies in light of the unclear policy landscape. This situation has further complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, as inflation and job data releases face postponement, enhancing speculative influx into crypto.
In remarks to Cointelegraph, analysts from Bitfinex commented,
“Bitcoin’s rise towards a new all-time high appears genuinely driven by market conditions. We speculate that Trump’s suggestion of potentially issuing stimulus payments funded by tariffs may also propel Bitcoin’s price further, similar to the effect we saw post-Covid stimulus distributions. Concurrently, steady ETF inflows provide a beneficial tailwind.”
Highlighting the macroeconomic landscape in the US, the analysts noted, “macro conditions are favorable, with diminishing inflation and the Federal Reserve leaning towards a more dovish approach, enhancing interest in risk assets. […] If inflows remain steady and no upside surprises occur in macro data, the trajectory for setting new all-time highs in Q4 appears well-supported.”
Increasing onchain BTC purchasing pressure
Onchain analysis confirmed that this surge is fueled by strong demand. Analyst Maartunn observed a remarkable spike in taker buy volume exceeding $1.6 billion within a single hour across various exchanges.
Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Gap, measuring the price discrepancy between Coinbase and Binance, increased to $91.86. Analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors are paying nearly $92 extra per Bitcoin on Coinbase, highlighting strong US-centric demand.
Nevertheless, this premium is the highest observed since mid-August, a threshold where bullish momentum has often receded in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin facing a squeeze as unprecedented $88B open interest raises ‘flush’ concerns
Next week’s price discovery expectations
As Bitcoin approaches record peaks, analysts anticipate price discovery in the following week. Crypto trader Jelle pointed out,
“$120,000 is likely transitioning into support today. If it holds over the weekend, I foresee price discovery resuming as soon as next week.”
Trader Rekt Capital characterized this period as “Phase 3 Price Discovery” of the current cycle, marking the breakout phase where new highs are established.
Analyst Skew noted that while demand remains strong, substantial sell orders are forming around $130,000, making it the next significant resistance point. The analyst also emphasized the robust inflows from the US via Coinbase and substantial “risk-on” positioning on Binance, underscoring that the upcoming daily closures will be pivotal in determining if BTC can maintain its momentum.
Related: Stablecoins surpass $300B market cap, showing 47% growth year-to-date
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activity involves risks, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
