Bitcoin has started the fourth quarter of 2025 with an impressive rally, increasing by over 10% in the past week — rising from approximately $109,000 on September 27 to more than $122,000 now.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, believes Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if the U.S. government shutdown persists.
Kendrick points out that Bitcoin’s historically positive correlation with U.S. Treasury term premiums indicates that the cryptocurrency might thrive amidst prolonged fiscal uncertainty.
He remarked that during extended market stress — conditions that typically benefit digitally scarce assets — Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated significant resilience. In this instance, the extended stress stems from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Standard Chartered now projects Bitcoin to reach $135,000 in the short term, with a year-end estimate of $200,000, indicating strong confidence in the token’s potential for growth.
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $122,200, just below its all-time high of $124,480 set in August.
Bitcoin Set for a Rally
The possibility of an extended U.S. government shutdown introduces another layer of market unpredictability, often impacting equities and fixed-income products.
For Bitcoin, these circumstances may act as a catalyst, enhancing its position as a hedge against traditional market fluctuations.
Although Bitcoin has been trading sideways in recent months, key liquidity indicators suggest that a breakout could be imminent. Trends in global M2 growth, stablecoin supply, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin typically follows with a 40-day lag — all indicate upward movement.
JPMorgan analysts also perceive Bitcoin as undervalued compared to gold, estimating a potential upside to $165,000 if the “debasement trade” — investing in assets that mitigate fiat currency risk — continues.
With September concluding approximately 5% higher at $114,000, historical trends suggest a strong likelihood of substantial gains in Q4, supported by increasing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
Data demonstrates that in years like 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, positive September close-outs were succeeded by fourth-quarter rallies averaging over 50%.
