The opportunity for upbeat predictions regarding Bitcoin’s price hitting a new high is rapidly decreasing. At first, many experts foretold that the dominant cryptocurrency would reach a milestone of $200,000 this year.
However, as time moves on, these projections are being revised, with some traders on crypto forecasting platforms reducing their price ambitions. Nevertheless, the possibility of achieving new all-time highs (ATHs) still remains for the rest of the year.
Historical Data Points To New Records In Q4
Recently, the Bitcoin price surged past the crucial $120,000 level, which has acted as a significant resistance barrier in recent months. A consistent weekly close above this level could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach unprecedented heights.
This price fluctuation follows the publication of softer private payroll data, which has heightened expectations for possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
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According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now estimate a 99% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction on October 29, a significant rise from 86% just a week prior.
Consequently, analysts from the Motley Fool remain hopeful, suggesting that Bitcoin could still reach a target of $140,000 by early 2026. Historical trends support this optimism, as Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated robust performance in the fourth quarter (Q4).
Over the years from 2013 to 2024, the average Q4 return for Bitcoin has been an impressive 85%. Notably, in 2020, Bitcoin saw an increase of 168% in the final quarter, while in 2017, it surged by 215%. Going further back to 2013, Bitcoin exhibited an astonishing 480% return.
Key Months For The Bitcoin Price
Analyzing the data, October and November have historically been pivotal months for Bitcoin’s price. November particularly stands out, featuring an average return of 46%, closely followed by October at 22%.
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Current forecasts from prediction markets indicate that traders believe Bitcoin has a 63% chance of reclaiming its former all-time high of $125,000 by year’s end. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by early 2026 is at 47%, while hitting $140,000 has been assessed at 32%.
Yet, the opportunity for achieving higher price points is narrowing quickly, shown by a mere 22% chance of reaching $150,000 this year and just a 5% chance of hitting $200,000.
Despite the prevailing optimism, analysts at Motley Fool have observed a decline in market sentiment since August. Prediction markets mirror this change, indicating a 6% probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000. Additionally, there’s a 2% chance that Bitcoin could dip beneath $50,000.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
