What Factors are Pushing Bitcoin Towards $120,000?

Greetings from the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your vital summary of today’s key crypto developments.

Pour yourself a coffee as markets gear up for a critical October with fluctuating signals, subdued liquidity hints, and atypical safe-haven investments. The atmosphere is taut, odds are shifting, and Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at the heart of speculation.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Nears $120,000 as Markets Anticipate Likely October Rate Cut

Bitcoin is priced at $118,746, approaching the significant $120,000 threshold, as investors invest in assets perceived to benefit from relaxed monetary policies.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99% likelihood of an October rate cut, projecting the rate to fall between 3.75% and 4.00%.

This shift stemmed from the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday, highlighting a loss of 32,000 private jobs in September—far below the anticipated gain of 51,000 and representing the sharpest drop since March 2023.

To exacerbate matters, August’s payroll figures were revised from a reported gain of 54,000 jobs to a decline of 3,000. This marks two consecutive months of contraction in US private-sector employment.

This data, coupled with a partial US government shutdown, leaves investors in the dark. Significant economic reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including Friday’s non-farm payroll data, are on hold. If the shutdown continues, even the CPI report due on October 15 might be impacted.

Despite this situation, ETF inflows into Bitcoin are sustaining demand. Yet, markets remain fragile if the Fed hesitates.

According to traditional finance sources, Deutsche Bank and ING have both acknowledged the risks posed by a prolonged shutdown, with Oxford Economics estimating that GDP could contract by as much as 0.2% per week if the closures persist. Nonetheless, seasonal optimism remains strong.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Safe-Haven Investments, Liquidity, and the Epstein Perspective

While Bitcoin takes center stage, veteran analyst Ira Epstein pointed out that the liquidity factors influencing gold and silver are also relevant here.

In his October 1 metals summary, Epstein cited expectations of Fed easing and government deadlock as key drivers behind safe-haven asset inflows.

“I expected that we’d get some sort of rally in gold and silver,” he stated.

However, Epstein cautioned that caution remains necessary as volatility increases. He noted that the bond and note markets are also gaining interest, reflecting widespread uncertainty regarding US policy data gaps.

Sponsored

Sponsored

For Bitcoin investors, the connection between liquidity and asset movements is notable. The same supportive factors elevating gold are also reflected in crypto’s rise. These factors include a weaker dollar, bond market strength, and safe-haven shifts.

In contrast to previous shutdown periods, where volatility was often contained, the confluence of ETF flows and anticipated Fed actions amplifies Bitcoin’s ascent. Still, some caution that the rally isn’t infallible.

“A brief shutdown will likely appear as a minor blip for US equities…However, an extended one, coupled with President Trump’s threatened mass layoffs, could result in substantial damage,” Fortune reported, citing Oxford’s Ryan Sweet.

This scenario could compel the Fed to enact deeper cuts, but it might also induce a risk-off sentiment that would negatively impact high-volatility assets such as BTC.

With $120,000 on the horizon and liquidity factors strengthening, October may signal another significant chapter in Bitcoin’s institutional shift.

This expectation arises as the original cryptocurrency portrays less of a speculative anomaly and more as a macro-safe haven, even amid political and policy uncertainties that obscure the path ahead.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Insights

Here’s a recap of additional US crypto news to watch today:

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview