Key insights:
The stablecoin SSR RSI indicates a “buy,” suggesting strong buying momentum.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have increased their holdings to 298,000 BTC.
A positive September close for Bitcoin historically leads to Q4 rallies, averaging gains of 78%.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced volatility in September but ultimately closed the month up 5% at $114,000 on Tuesday.
Key indicators suggest that the recent bounce back from $108,000 may herald a significant upcoming move, as per analysts.
Stablecoin metric indicates “buy” for Bitcoin
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which assesses stablecoins’ buying power in relation to Bitcoin, has seen a decline, with the relative strength index (RSI) at its lowest point in four months.
Related: Pro Bitcoin traders’ perspectives on BTC’s sudden drop to $112.6K: Any changes?
The Bitcoin “SSR RSI is at 21, marking ‘buy’ territory,” reported on-chain data provider CryptoQuant in a Tuesday X thread.
The previous time the RSI was at this level matched the BTC price drop below $75,000, leading to a 67% rally to the all-time highs of $124,500.
A lower SSR indicates increased stablecoin “buying power.” This is supported by the growing stablecoin supply, suggesting higher liquidity and investor confidence.
For instance, Tether USDt (USDT) market capitalization has steadily risen, with over 10 billion USDT minted in the past 60 days.
“This clearly signifies fresh liquidity entering the market,” CryptoQuant commented, adding:
“Increasing stablecoin supply acts as a significant tailwind during bullish markets.”
Moreover, long-term Bitcoin holders are continuing to expand their holdings, with these accumulation addresses now holding a record 298,000 BTC. This trend indicates optimism about Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
“These signals could define Bitcoin’s next significant move,” CryptoQuant concluded.
BTC price indicates potential bottom
As reported by Cointelegraph, multiple on-chain and technical indicators suggest that last week’s decline to $108,650 may have represented the local bottom for BTC.
Analytics firm Swissblock also noted that the crypto market is undergoing a reset based on its integrated impulse signal, which evaluates the price structure of the top 350 assets.
The metric has fallen to 20% from over 100% just weeks ago.
“At that specific moment, the Impulse Signal reaches zero. That’s when panic subsides, and new buyers enter,” the firm explained.
Swissblock pointed out that this reset has happened only three times since early 2024, with each occasion marking a “cycle bottom” followed by Bitcoin price recovery.
“We are nearing that situation again.”
Bitcoin avoids “red September” for the third consecutive year
Bitcoin maintained its trend of positive average returns in September, a month historically labeled as its weakest or “Rektember.”
September yields the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin, averaging –3% over the past 13 years since 2013.
Nonetheless, the close above $114,000 on Tuesday marks a rare bullish conclusion to September, a scenario that the past has shown often precedes substantial Q4 gains (as illustrated below).
Analyst Mikybull Crypto mentioned in an X post on Wednesday:
“Whenever $BTC finishes green in September, Q4 typically sees a significant rally.”
In addition, the timeframe from October to December represents the best quarter for Bitcoin price rallies, averaging gains of 78%.
Reviewing the recent Q4 performances, BTC surged approximately 48% in 2024, 57% in 2023, and marked an exponential increase of 480% in 2013.
If historical patterns hold true, BTC’s price may witness its most substantial gains of the ongoing bull cycle in the upcoming three months.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risks, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
