Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price charts from 2021 suggest a potential drop to $60,000 if past trends hold true.
Bulls are optimistic that support at $104,000 will endure, eyeing targets of $140,000 or more.
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen over 12.75% from its all-time high of more than $124,500, dividing traders into two distinct camps.
Some view it as a typical bull market correction, while others warn of the onset of a new bear cycle. But who has the stronger case?
Bitcoin 2021 chart fractals point to $60,000
Various analyses indicate Bitcoin might replicate the price movement that indicated the 2021 market peak.
Crypto analyst Reflection notes that in 2021, BTC experienced a significant rally to record highs, followed by a blow-off top, a correction to mid-range support, and a failed resistance retest.
This series of events led to a crash of over 50%, dropping Bitcoin from nearly $69,000 to around $32,000 in just weeks.
Bitcoin’s current structure mirrors that same four-step pattern, with BTC lingering just below a comparable distribution zone that marked the bearish turn in 2021.
The cryptocurrency may face a similar rejection if this fractal remains intact.
Additionally, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken under a rising wedge, a bearish trend characterized by higher highs and lows within narrowing trendlines.
This breakdown increases the risk of a decline to the $60,000–$62,000 range, which coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; blue wave). Some analysts even predict Bitcoin might drop to $50,000.
Notably, a similar wedge breakdown in 2021 resulted in a 55% plunge down to the same 200-week EMA support.
Bitcoin might bounce back above $124,500
Not everyone foresees a broad downturn in the Bitcoin market, however.
Trader Jesse points out a cluster formed by BTC’s 200-day simple and exponential moving averages that acts as support during bull market corrections, suggesting that the crypto may find a “mid-term bottom” there.
As of Friday, this EMA price floor was around the $104,000-106,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin must hit $104K to repeat past bull market dips: Research
Analyst Bitbull argues that Bitcoin is still far from reaching a true cycle top, noting that the US Business Cycle, a broad measure of economic momentum, has yet to peak, which usually occurs prior to market downturns.
With the Federal Reserve currently cutting interest rates, Bitbull believes that crypto could still enjoy another three to four months of upside before a potential “blow-off top.”
Indicators of bullish continuation strengthen the argument for Bitcoin rising as high as $140,000, according to analyst Captain Faibik.
He posits that the current dip serves as a “healthy correction,” with BTC retesting its 200-day moving average around $104,000 as a potential support level.
Faibik highlights the formation of a possible bull flag; in this scenario, a decisive move above the $113,000 resistance could confirm the breakout, paving the way for a rally towards $140,000 in the coming months.
Many analysts have forecasted similar year-end targets for Bitcoin previously, with some even predicting macro BTC peaks in the $150,000-200,000 range.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
