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The price of Bitcoin remains above $113,000 as whale activities and dwindling exchange reserves indicate resilience, despite technical indicators suggesting short-term caution.
Summary
- Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,000, reflecting a 2.3% decline over the week and 8.9% below its all-time high.
- On-chain metrics reveal whales have added 56K BTC, alongside a decrease in exchange reserves.
- Support is found at $112K, with resistance located near $118K.
As of the latest report, Bitcoin was valued at $113,092, showing a 0.3% increase in the past 24 hours. Over the last week, it has fluctuated between $111,933 and $117,851, with a 2.3% decrease during this period and a 1.6% drop over the past month.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is 8.9% below its all-time high of $124,128, reached on August 14. Trading volumes have surged significantly, with $56.3 billion in spot trading occurring within 24 hours, marking a 45.8% increase compared to the previous day.
In the derivatives market, CoinGlass reports that open interest has remained relatively stable, while futures volume has risen by 11% to $86 billion. This suggests increased short-term trading activity without substantial new positions being established.
On-chain analysis remains positive
Three critical indicators shaping the current pullback were outlined in a Sept. 23 analysis from XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant.
Firstly, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value ratio has entered negative territory, indicating that the average Bitcoin holder is currently facing losses. Historically, such instances point to undervaluation, potentially offering better risk-adjusted entry points.
Secondly, whale accumulation persists. Santiment data highlights a robust intake of 56,372 BTC by wallets containing between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC since August 27. This consistent demand from larger investors aids in stabilizing price movements despite retail fluctuations.
Lastly, more than 31,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the last month, continuing a long-term downward trend. The reduction in available coins for sale lessens supply-side pressure, creating a favorable landscape for medium-term price growth.
While market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of undervaluation, ongoing accumulation, and a supply squeeze all suggest the potential onset of a recovery phase.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin price
Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidation following its decline from the August peak, trading in the middle of its Bollinger Band. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. With a relative strength index of 46, the market is neither in overbought nor oversold territory.
The momentum oscillator indicates a potential rebound, yet the MACD has shifted to bearish territory, flashing a sell signal. Short-term moving averages reflect bearish trends, with most indicators from the 10- to 50-day averages signaling sell. However, the 200-day EMA at $106,063 continues to provide support.
Key support levels are at $112,000, followed by the 200-day EMA near $106,000. Resistance zones are concentrated around $115,500 to $118,500, where several moving averages converge. A breakthrough above this range could pave the way back to $120,000.
Although the short-term outlook appears cautious, ongoing on-chain accumulation and decreasing reserves suggest that the downside may be limited, with whales quietly preparing for the next upward movement.
