Crypto investors who have been sitting out the Bitcoin market this year might have another opportunity to accumulate, as a crypto analyst forecasts that Bitcoin could drop by as much as 70% in the next bear market.
Nevertheless, opinions among crypto analysts are divided about Bitcoin’s future direction. Some believe a bear market is still quite a distance away, while others anticipate it could arrive sooner than expected.
“I would suggest a potential 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up being,” Cowen mentioned to Kyle Chasse in an interview released on Thursday, referencing earlier bear market cycles where Bitcoin (BTC) experienced drawdowns of 94%, 87%, and around 77%.
“Does it have to happen? No, but history would at least caution us to consider that it might.”
A significant drop from $250K Bitcoin
With certain Bitcoin proponents, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predicting prices could reach $250,000 by year-end, a 70% decline would reduce it to roughly $75,000.
Cowen noted, “If we start surging higher in Q4, it’ll simply reinforce my viewpoint that this time isn’t different; I will just take profits back to stable assets.” He also mentioned he may hold off re-entering until mid-2026.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $117,010, representing a 3.41% increase over the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Cowen advised that market participants should brace for another significant rally but not underestimate how swiftly it could peak.
“Clearly, investors are optimistic that we will build up to a final rally towards the market cycle top,” he said, emphasizing that this should be considered the base case.
“However, if that begins to materialize, just keep in mind that the top could occur at any time, right? …No one will confidently declare, ‘this is the peak,’” he added.
“Everyone will likely be euphoric if we start moving upward,” he stated.
ETH is set to outperform Bitcoin as the cycle nears its end
On a related note, Cowen anticipates that Ether (ETH) will “struggle against” Bitcoin for a few more weeks, but believes it will ultimately outperform Bitcoin as the end of the cycle approaches.
“From now until the closure of this cycle, Ethereum appears poised to outperform,” Cowen remarked.
“I foresee some weakness for ETH throughout October,” he continued. The ETH/BTC ratio, which gauges Ether’s strength relative to Bitcoin, has increased by 8.56% over the past 30 days, as per TradingView.
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Some Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin’s price will adhere to its usual four-year cycle, while others remain uncertain.
Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan commented, “I predict 2026 will be a bullish year.” “I generally believe we are in for a good few years,” Hougan added.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently expressed, “I think there’s over a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach the 140 to 150 range this year before we face another bear market next year.”
Meanwhile, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor remarked in June, “The winter is not returning.”
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