Traders in Bitcoin (BTC) are preparing for volatility as the cryptocurrency approaches the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Bitcoin bulls face a significant resistance level at $117,000 as the week commences.
All attention is directed towards the Fed, as markets widely anticipate the first interest-rate cut of 2025 to occur on Wednesday.
A historically reliable BTC price forecasting tool predicts fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Binance order-book data indicates that substantial buyers were active over the weekend.
Institutional demand reached nine times the mined BTC supply last week, with this trend seen pushing the price higher.
Bitcoin price begins to fluctuate as TradFi makes a comeback
Bitcoin price volatility is rising as traditional finance markets resume, with data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicating this.
BTC/USD continues to face rejection at $117,000, marking it as a point of interest for traders.
Approaching $117,000. We need to break that level to progress to the next leg up pic.twitter.com/58YifZnkLE
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) September 15, 2025
“$BTC has been rejected from the $117,000-$117,200 area. This is the crucial level for Bitcoin to reclaim,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows shared in his latest post on X.
“If BTC can’t reclaim this quickly, the likelihood of a correction toward $113,500 or lower increases.”
Data from CoinGlass shows a significant block of ask liquidity on exchange order-books just above $117,000, with price moving into bids below.
Fellow trader CrypNuevo speculated that $113,000 may become relevant around the time of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve interest-rate announcement.
“I predict a max drop to $113k-$112k this week,” an X thread published on Sunday noted.
Fed rate-cut discussion takes center stage
This week should witness the US Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 2025.
Markets are expecting that Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will result in a 0.25% rate cut. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool even indicates a small chance of a larger 0.5% cut.
The circumstances around the impending move are unusual. According to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, there have only been three instances since 1996 when the Fed reduced rates while stocks were near all-time highs.
The outcome should favor risk-asset bulls, including Bitcoin holders.
“There will be immediate-term volatility, but long-term asset owners will benefit. Why? Because interest rate cuts are emerging alongside rising inflation and the AI Revolution, adding fuel to the fire,” it stated in an X thread on Saturday.
“Gold and Bitcoin have anticipated this. The steady increase in these asset classes is reflecting what’s coming.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, the Fed is facing a balancing act between high inflation rates and declining labor-market conditions, which it is likely to cite as a reason for a rate cut.
“While inflation is still a concern for the Fed, the central bank’s focus appears to have shifted toward aiding the labor market,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company summarized in its latest newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
Mosaic highlighted recent downward revisions in job data, suggesting the market is “pricing in several rate cuts ahead.”
“There’s a 100% certainty the Fed will lower rates this week…the only uncertainty is by how much,” it remarked.
“Regardless, a new rate-cutting cycle is on the horizon at a time when financial conditions are already lenient and the stock market signals a positive growth outlook.”
The peak of the Bitcoin bull market could be “just weeks away”
The anticipation surrounding the peak of the current Bitcoin bull market is becoming an increasingly urgent topic among market participants.
Some assert that $124,500 will hold until the next cycle, while others are anticipating a final expedition into price discovery.
$BTC 1W
Bull divergence still exists on 1W. Wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a quick retest of 112k before moving slightly higher.
Again, I’m not foreseeing a new ATH or a continuation of the bull run; this is one bull divergence among numerous bearish factors including increasing profit-taking. pic.twitter.com/bXNSCtp78x
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) September 15, 2025
Recently, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of the crypto analytics platform Alphractal, referenced his historically accurate BTC price forecasting tool as evidence.
He stated that the Max Intersect SMA model, which utilizes simple moving averages (SMAs) and algorithmic analysis to identify bull market peaks, has not yet indicated a signal for this cycle.
“The Max Intersect SMA Model hasn’t confirmed this cycle’s peak just yet, but it’s nearing,” an X post revealed, with Wedson suggesting the peak could be “only weeks away.”
Accompanying charts indicate a peak target around $140,000.
Cointelegraph noted that comparisons between past bull markets and the current one have led to expectations that the peak will not arrive before October.
A golden cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator at the beginning of September suggested a bold $160,000 target for the upcoming month, again based on historical trends.
Binance indicates signs of large-volume purchases
The largest crypto exchange, Binance, suggests a possible BTC supply compression, potentially enhancing bullish momentum.
The latest analytics from the onchain platform CryptoQuant concluded that a significant buyer may have been active on Binance over the weekend. Contributor Arab Chain pointed to the Binance Scarcity Index tool as evidence.
“The index rises when immediate buying power surpasses available supply, as if buyers are urgently acquiring Bitcoin from the market,” it noted in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog entries.
“This kind of spike is often associated with favorable news or sudden capital influxes. A similar pattern was observed last June and persisted for several days, after which Bitcoin surged to around $124,000.”
Arab Chain acknowledged that short-term spikes in the index usually precede phases of consolidatory price behavior. The current increase, it stated, needs to persist for several days.
“The scarcity index has seen a significant rise in recent months, reaching all-time highs (above +6) before quickly retreating towards neutral and even negative territory,” it noted.
The index was at 2.94 on Sunday, according to CryptoQuant data.
ETFs are eliminating newly mined BTC
As focus shifts to large BTC purchases, institutions are drawing attention as crypto exchange-traded products experience substantial inflows.
Related: Bitcoin miner accumulation hits fastest pace since 2023 rally
As noted by Cointelegraph, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) garnered net inflows of $2.3 billion last week.
This prompted Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, to assert that the magnitude of institutional interest will ultimately propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
“Why? Because institutional demand is simply too high, and that demand is on the rise,” he stated over the weekend.
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode observed that on September 10 alone, the ETFs’ 5,900 BTC inflows represented their highest single-day total since mid-July.
“This resulted in positive weekly net flows, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC stabilizes above the $114k threshold,” it added.
A widely discussed argument suggests that institutional purchases are surpassing the quantity of newly minted coins added to the BTC supply by miners.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, calculated last week’s inflows as nearly nine times the newly mined supply.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
