Key insights:
XRP couldn’t maintain $3.12 and is met with immediate resistance at $3.30.
On-chain data reveals significant accumulation in the $2.70 to $3.00 range.
Chart patterns indicate a possible rally of 60%–85% into Q4 is still plausible.
XRP (XRP) experienced an 18% surge in early September, reaching $3.18 from $2.70. However, it was unable to surpass the $3.20 threshold, declining at the four-hour fair value gap on the selling side and dropping back to retest the $3 support.
After the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on Wednesday, XRP was unable to establish a higher peak beyond $3.18, prolonging short-term weakness and setting up another retest at $3. The altcoin is also having difficulty staying above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is increasing selling pressure on immediate momentum.
Futures trader DOM pointed out the bulls’ failure to defend the $3.12 level earlier this week, identifying it as a crucial area for continued movement toward $3.30. The trader noted:
“Bulls failed to hold $3.12 earlier in the week, which I mentioned would be the challenge for a push to $3.30. That idea remains, with all eyes on that level being converted to support (currently contested). There’s minimal substantial passive resistance in the order books until the ~$3.30 target area.”
This positions $3.30 as the immediate resistance, with bulls needing to reclaim $3.18 for meaningful upward momentum.
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Reasons why XRP’s bullish outlook remains intact
Despite short-term challenges, broader market indicators suggest sustained bullish momentum for XRP. On-chain data reveals the Net Holder position change has been significantly positive since August 22.
This change comes after a stretch of declines between July and early August, aligning with profit-taking at higher prices. Accumulation has notably occurred in the $2.70–$3 range, demonstrating that investors are positioning for gains rather than exiting the market.
Additionally, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio highlighted a transition phase. July experienced the highest profit-taking of the cycle, leading to the subsequent decline. Since then, the ratio has stabilized but surged sharply recently, marking its most significant increase since November 2024.
This indicates that much of the prior selling pressure has been absorbed, with new groups of investors likely entering the market. Alongside the net holder accumulation, these signals reflect a positive long-term environment.
XRP’s recurring market fractal serves as another bullish signal. The Q1 structure aligns with the current Q3 setup, where the $2.70 low coincides with the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.5–0.618).
This fractal suggests XRP is adhering to its anticipated cycle pattern, paving the way for a potential rally of 60%–85% in Q4. Based on this forecast, XRP could reach the $5.00-$5.50 range from its current price of $3.
Related: XRP price ‘gearing up’ for breakout: Why next target is $15
