Highlights:
XRP closed under $3, yet a fractal pattern indicates a bullish Q4 outlook, with a possible rally to $4.35 – $4.85.
Whale activity remains negative, suggesting short-term declines before potential reaccumulation in the $2.65 to $2.33 range.
XRP (XRP) ended a daily candle below the $3 psychological threshold on Aug. 19, continuing its two-week correction. Although short-term trends seem bearish, the long-term perspective is positive, backed by a recurring market fractal pattern.
A fractal in the market denotes a repetitive price structure seen across various timeframes, where similar setups lead to comparable results. On XRP’s daily chart, the present structure resembles one noted earlier this year. In January 2025, XRP surged to $3.40 before steadily declining to $1.60 by April.
This local bottom formed after the price tapped into liquidity within both a daily and weekly fair value gap (FVG). Higher timeframe imbalances tend to have greater significance, as they indicate areas with concentrated trader bids and liquidity.
In July, XRP experienced a rapid rebound, reaching a new local high of $3.66. Currently, the chart demonstrates a similar setup, with a new FVG visible between $2.32 and $2.66. If this imbalance is addressed, the likelihood of a renewed expansion phase increases, paving the way for a potential breakout.
Considering the diminishing returns rate, XRP could realize gains between 60–85% in Q4, with upside potential reaching $4.35. The key resistance level lies at $3.85, above which XRP would enter price discovery.
Alongside favorable macroeconomic factors such as potential US interest rate cuts, XRP could maintain momentum beyond immediate targets, extending the rally over several weeks. While short-term volatility is probable, the broader structure suggests a bullish continuation into Q4.
Related: Price predictions 8/20: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, XLM
Negative XRP whale flows indicate exhaustion
Recent on-chain data reveals that large XRP holders, or “whale addresses,” have been scaling back their positions, but selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
A similar selling trend was seen in Q2, coinciding with XRP’s broader downturn. Presently, the 90-day moving average of whale net flows indicates a peak in distribution, which could turn positive as prices decline.
Historically, whale movements have significantly influenced market trends. During H2 2024, considerable accumulation transpired between $2.00 and $2.50, where whales established substantial positions prior to XRP’s rally. A similar situation may be emerging, with accumulation zones likely to reappear around $2.65–$2.33.
Related: XRP’s price downtrend could continue: Here’s 4 reasons why
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
