Good Morning, Asia. Here’s the latest in market news:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, your daily recap of key stories during U.S. hours, along with market movements and analysis. For an in-depth look at U.S. markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As we approach the year’s end with many Hong Kong desks running on limited staff due to the Christmas holidays, cryptocurrency markets are transitioning from a momentum phase to one focused on results. A notable year-end assessment is emerging from Polymarket, where traders now estimate only a 2% likelihood that Bitcoin ETFs will surpass last year’s inflow record in 2025.
This assessment hinges on basic mathematics. Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $33.6B in 2024. By December 15 U.S. time, this year’s total is approximately $22.5B, according to SoSoValue, leaving an approximate $11B gap with only a few trading days remaining.
However, the past week has indicated a resurgence in ETF inflows, even amidst softening prices and lagging altcoins. This suggests that while reaching the $33.6B target may be unlikely, the underlying role of ETFs in risk absorption continues to strengthen as the year winds down.
According to Glassnode data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive again, even as prices fell from $94,000, where they were trading the day before, and spot market conditions weakened—resulting in net inflows rebounding to around $290 million this week after previous outflows.
Simultaneously, Glassnode notes a decline in ETF trading volumes, indicating reduced speculative activity and a trend toward allocation-driven strategies. This explains why Bitcoin has fared better than the broader CoinDesk 20 index, with ETFs serving a stabilizing function when risk arises from higher-beta assets, instead of being used primarily for speculative gains.
The $11B difference from last year’s record of $33.6B illustrates the changing narrative surrounding ETFs, rather than indicating a stall in progress.
Unlike the initial launch year of 2024, characterized by pent-up demand and one-off allocations, 2025 is being shaped by rotation, fee shifts, and volatility-driven rebalancing.
While the basic figures may already be in place, surpassing benchmarks before the year’s close is not the top priority. The focus has shifted to their utility: ETFs are no longer significantly impacting crypto prices as they did upon their 2024 introduction.
They are increasingly assumed a stabilizing presence in the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than exacerbating price fluctuations. This reflects the maturation of market infrastructure.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin has been consolidating over the past week after facing resistance near $94,000, retracing back toward the $87,000 to $88,000 range, while outperforming the overall crypto market.
ETH: Ether has lagged behind recently, sliding down toward the $2,950 to $3,000 range due to intensified selling pressure in higher-beta assets while rotation favored Bitcoin.
Gold: Gold surpassed $4,300 after the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly plunged into contraction in December, increasing demand for safe-haven assets as U.S. manufacturing volatility returned.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s downturn, as investors moved away from U.S. AI trades; the Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.14%, with the Topix down by 1.05%.
Additional Crypto News:
- Senate postpones cryptocurrency market structure bill until next year (CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin hits a one-year low in active addresses, raising new concerns over blockspace demand (The Block)
