Main Points:
XRP (XRP) has consistently surged past the $3 mark since its November 2024 spike, but each rise has resulted in a fakeout and subsequent deeper retracements.
This Saturday, its price fell once more below its $3 support, coinciding with its 200-4H exponential moving average (EMA; green wave).
Could the XRP price drop even further in the upcoming days? Let’s explore.
XRP chart fractal suggests a 15% drop
XRP is reflecting a bearish fractal that could lead to a 15% decline toward $2.60 soon.
In September, the token’s price created a rounded top, followed by a symmetrical triangle consolidation before a sharp downturn. This move resulted in XRP prices plunging toward the $2.70 region.
A similar pattern is unfolding in October.
On the four-hour chart, XRP has developed another rounded top and is consolidating within a bearish flag. This pattern often induces another leg down by the maximum distance between its upper and lower trendlines.
The four-hour relative strength indicator (RSI) heightens this risk, as it has been correcting from overbought levels above 70 and has space to fall before hitting the oversold mark of 30.
Related: XRP price reclaims $3, paving the way for 40% gains in October
XRP may first test flag support at $2.93. A decisive close below this level could confirm a breakdown, potentially allowing a drop to $2.60, which is nearly 15% down from current prices.
This target aligns with XRP’s 200-day EMA (the blue wave in the chart below).
A rebound from the 20- ($2.93) or 50-day ($2.52) EMAs may invalidate the bearish scenario, leading to a resurgence towards $3.
$500 million long squeeze may accelerate XRP sell-off
XRP’s $3 level is positioned between two significant liquidity pockets, according to data from CoinGlass.
On the upside, there are substantial clusters of long liquidation levels between $3.18 and $3.40.
For example, at $3.18, the total short leverage is around $33.81 million, indicating that the market could shift upward to trigger stop orders if bulls regain strength.
Conversely, the heatmap reveals even larger liquidation pools stacked between $2.89 and $2.73, exceeding $500 million.
A decisive close below $3 could initiate a wave of long liquidations down to $2.89–$2.73. Conversely, holding above $3 provides potential for a stop-run to $3.20–$3.40.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research prior to making any decisions.
