Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has cautioned that bitcoin’s distinctive growth parabola has broken, potentially leading to a severe drop to $25,000.
Brandt’s prediction is based on the rapid decay observed in bitcoin’s bullish cycles. Historically, the cryptocurrency has surged significantly in the 12-18 months following a halving event and then entered a bear market, with declines ranging from 70% to 80% from peak values.
Notably, each bullish cycle has yielded lower returns. For example, after the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC experienced a 100-fold increase to $1,240 by December 2013. The halving in 2016 resulted in a 74-fold increase, while the 2020 halving led to an eight-fold increase.
The most recent post-halving cycle, initiated after the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices surge to a record high of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have retracted to just below $90,000, breaching the parabolic curve that had defined significant price increases during previous cycles.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt remarked on X.
Brandt illustrates this on a logarithmic scale chart dating back to 2010: four increasingly steep pink arcs, each mapping a cycle’s erratic vertical ascent. Parabolas do not curve gently; they shoot upward, mirroring BTC’s historical rapid gains.
Additionally, movements below that support line have signaled the conclusion of bullish trends. The decline from October’s peaks has done just that, slicing beneath the fourth arc.
