Crypto expert Tony Severino has identified a historical bearish trend that could push Bitcoin’s price down to $42,000. This pessimistic forecast for BTC comes during a recovery phase for the leading cryptocurrency, having recently surged past the critical $90,000 mark.
Bitcoin Price Faces a 50% Decline to $42,000 Based on This Indicator
In an X post, Severino mentioned that Bitcoin tends to retrace to subwave 3/4 of wave 3/4 of its momentum. He suggested that BTC could decline to as low as $42,000 during wave C of this downward movement. His accompanying chart illustrated that this drop may occur at the beginning of next year.
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This negative Bitcoin price projection coincides with BTC’s rise above $90,000 after the conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The leading cryptocurrency has also rebounded amidst hopes of another interest rate reduction in this month’s FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch data indicates there’s nearly a 90% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates again this month.
Nonetheless, despite these favorable macro conditions for Bitcoin’s price, analysts like Tony Severino argue that BTC is currently in a bear market and may trend lower in the months ahead. In a recent X post, he pointed to the BTC monthly chart, indicating it displayed a subtle volume breakout that confirmed a “not-so-subtle” trendline breakdown.
Meanwhile, market analyst JT commented that claims the end of QT is optimistic for the Bitcoin price are a “fallacy.” He hinted at the potential for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to increase rates this month as an additional strain on liquidity beyond QT.
Peter Brandt Foresees Drop to Mid $40ks
In an X post, seasoned trader and analyst Peter Brandt predicted that Bitcoin’s price could fall to the mid $40,000 range. He stated that the upper limit of the lower green zone starts below $70,000, with the lower support boundary in the mid $40,000 range. Importantly, Brandt had previously forecasted that BTC might drop to around $50,000 before rallying towards $200,000 in the next bull cycle.
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The veteran analyst observed that there have been five significant bull market cycles for Bitcoin since its inception. He added that in all previous cycles, breaking through the main parabolic advance has been followed by corrections exceeding 75%, without exception. Therefore, he anticipates BTC will experience another notable correction in this cycle, likely dipping below $50,000.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price is trading at approximately $93,000, up nearly 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
