Key takeaways
Strategy stands as the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, boasting approximately 650,000 BTC in its reserves.
The firm’s strategy revolves around acquiring capital and converting it into BTC, maintaining its market-cap-to-Bitcoin value (mNAV) above 1.
Phong Le, the CEO, has referred to the sale of Bitcoin as a “last resort,” to be assessed only if mNAV falls beneath 1 and capital access significantly worsens.
Should Strategy opt to liquidate some of its assets, the Bitcoin market—characterized by daily volumes in the tens of billions—would likely accommodate a focused sell-off rather than an all-out exit.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, has devoted the last five years to establishing itself as what it claims is “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.”
As of early December 2025, it possessed nearly 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), representing over 3% of the total 21 million supply and significantly surpassing any public company’s holdings.
For many conventional investors, Strategy’s stock functioned as a type of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of directly purchasing BTC, they opted for the stock as the company converts raised capital into Bitcoin.
Current discussions stem from Phong Le’s recent remarks suggesting that a Bitcoin sale could occur under very specific circumstances. While headlines often spotlight “sell,” the company frames this as a risk management tactic in times of distress, not a pivot in its long-term Bitcoin commitment.
This article explores how the framework operates and what factors might lead to sales, assisting readers in processing forthcoming news without succumbing to panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is strictly informational and does not constitute investment advice.
Did you know? Recent estimates indicate that institutions now control nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoin.
How Strategy’s Bitcoin engine actually works
In everyday operations, Strategy follows a relatively straightforward financial loop. The company:
Gathers capital through common-stock at-the-market programs, various series of perpetual preferred stock, like STRK and STRF, and occasional convertible debt.
Allocates much of this capital to purchase additional Bitcoin, which it designates as its principal treasury reserve asset.
Monitors a set of metrics to evaluate whether this remains beneficial for shareholders.
Two of these metrics are particularly relevant:
Bitcoin per share (BPS): The amount of BTC effectively associated with each fully diluted share. Strategy publicizes this as a crucial performance indicator.
Market-cap-to-net-asset-value (nNAV): The ratio of Strategy’s total market value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV exceeds 1, the stock trades at a premium to its BTC.
When the company trades at a favorable premium, it can raise new equity or preferred stock with minimal dilution, thus expanding its Bitcoin cache. This foundational scenario—where Strategy raises at a premium, acquires more BTC, and enhances BPS—is still the model that management asserts it is pursuing.
The “last resort” sale trigger
The new aspect is a clearly defined backup plan for that model.
In recent discussions, Le elucidated that Strategy would contemplate selling some Bitcoin only if two conditions are satisfied concurrently:
mNAV dips below 1, indicating the company’s market cap is at or less than the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Fresh capital access becomes unavailable—such as if investors are reluctant to buy its equity or preferred stock under feasible terms.
He characterized selling BTC in this scenario as a “last resort” option to fulfill obligations like preferred dividends, rather than a standing plan for divesting the treasury.
In simple terms:
If the stock trades at or below the worth of the BTC and the company cannot finance itself, then divesting a portion of BTC emerges as the least detrimental method to safeguard the overall framework.
What could realistically push Strategy toward that line
Numerous variables must align before contemplating the “last resort” trigger.
Macro and Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has already seen a significant decline from its October peak of around $126,000 to the $80,000 range, a reduction of approximately 30%. Extended downturns compress the value of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves and tend to concurrently pressure its stock.
Equity performance and mNAV
Strategy’s market cap premium over its Bitcoin has decreased post a 30%-60% decline in stock from earlier highs. In mid-November, the company intermittently traded at or below the current value of its holdings, indicating an mNAV close to 1.
Funding conditions
The operation relies on issuing new common and perpetual preferred shares through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. A sharp slowdown in these offerings, or if investors demand significantly higher yields, could signal funding stress.
Internal obligations
Strategy bears considerable annual commitments in terms of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts estimate preferred dividend obligations in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
Management still views itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the aforementioned scenarios depict an extremely stressed environment.
Did you know? Onchain analytics suggest that between 3 million and 4 million BTC might be permanently lost in inactive wallets, meaning a considerable portion of the supply will never return to the marketplace.
What a Strategy sale would and would not mean for Bitcoin
Given that Strategy possesses 650,000 BTC, any transition from “never sell” to “might sell under duress” inevitably attracts traders’ focus.
Context remains crucial:
Market size: Daily spot and derivatives trading volume in Bitcoin routinely reaches the tens of billions. Concurrently, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced inflows and outflows that reach billions in a single day. A controlled sale of a fraction of Strategy’s reserves, while significant, would enter a deeply liquid and vast market.
Likely scale and pace: Le’s declarations suggest that any sale in a stressful situation would be targeted and partial, aimed at fulfilling obligations or sustaining the capital structure, not exiting Bitcoin.
Pricing in advance: Markets typically start factoring in these potentialities as soon as they are revealed. The recent declines in both BTC and Strategy’s stock, along with discussions about mNAV, exemplify this trend.
It is vital to emphasize that a conditional last resort sale framework does not equate to an announcement that substantial BTC sales are forthcoming.
Did you know? In Q3 2025, the average daily trading volume for crypto spot trading was approximately $155 billion, with an additional $14 billion in notional crypto derivatives traded daily on CME alone.
How to follow Strategy’s next moves
For those who wish to monitor this narrative without overreacting to every headline or trend, several observable indicators can provide clarity:
Begin with primary sources.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, like 8 Ks and supplementary prospectuses, exhibit new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press releases and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page summarize recent acquisitions and total holdings.
Monitor core metrics.
US Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, illustrate new capital raises and Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy’s press announcements and its “Bitcoin Purchases” page compile recent acquisitions and total Bitcoin holdings.
Social media sentiment often reflects mood rather than concrete data. “Green dot” posts, laser eyes memes, and doomsday threads can offer insight into general sentiment, but any claims regarding forced selling or insolvency should be verified against filings and actual data.
N.B. Financial circumstances, timelines, and risk tolerance differ among individuals. This information is general and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial professional for guidance tailored to their situation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
