Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs have broadened access, yet flows are still cyclical.
SOL’s infrastructure is ready: CME futures are active, with options expected on Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s generic standards enable quicker listings for spot-commodity ETPs beyond BTC and ETH.
For SOL to surpass ETH, it requires ongoing creations, rigorous hedging, genuine on-chain utility, and sustained developer activity.
Ether (ETH) has taken an early lead in the ETF race: Spot Ether ETFs commenced trading on July 23, 2024, attracting around $107 million in initial net inflows and creating a mainstream channel for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.
Meanwhile, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is quickly advancing. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduced Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options coming on Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Exchange Commission implemented “generic listing standards” to simplify how exchanges can list spot commodity ETPs, possibly extending beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outside the US, SOL already trades in regulated investment wrappers via Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With this access established, the critical question is whether a US SOL ETF can drive enough demand to allow Solana to outperform Ether in both price and fundamentals.
Before exploring that, let’s establish some context.
What ETH ETFs changed, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs began trading in the US on July 23, 2024. On their debut, they achieved around $1 billion in trading volume and approximately $107 million in net inflows, introducing a mainstream channel for registered investment advisers (RIAs) and institutions. However, this still lagged behind Bitcoin’s ETF launch in January.
Since then, flows have shown cyclicality. By mid-2025, ETH saw spells of net creations interspersed with outflows. Reports by late August and mid-September 2025 indicated renewed strength, showcasing multi-week inflows into Ether products that boosted total crypto assets under management (AUM). In essence, ETFs enhanced access, but did not eliminate market cycles.
Throughout 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto assets at times, driven by steady ETF demand and notable institutional and treasury accumulation. This trend indicates that while ETFs may not alter core network fundamentals, they can sway which asset leads in capital rotation phases.
An important design element remains: US ETH ETFs launched without staking, thereby limiting their income potential compared to directly holding native ETH. The SEC is currently reviewing proposals to permit staking, but as of October 2025, decisions across multiple issuers have been postponed. Should staking be approved — even partially — it could change the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct ownership.
Did you know? US exchanges provide an indicative net asset value (iNAV) about every 15 seconds, allowing traders to monitor intraday ETF price levels.
Solana today: Usage, growth and risks
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in network revenue, marking its third consecutive quarter as the leader among all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. Data in June indicated that Solana matched the combined monthly active addresses of all other major L1s and L2s — a strong usage intensity indicator.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a significant rebound from late 2024 lows. The supply of USDC on Solana stands around $9.35 billion, while the network’s total stablecoin supply more than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Nonetheless, Ethereum still moves the majority of value through stablecoins year-to-date — approximately 60% as of mid-2025 — indicating that while Solana’s gains are significant, they are not yet dominant.
Cost and speed remain primary attractions: Sub-cent fees, 400-millisecond block times, and high throughput have established Solana as a hub for decentralized exchange (DEX) and perpetual futures activity — particularly during 2025’s memecoin surge. This volume bolsters liquidity but also channels flows into speculative areas.
Two structural risks deserve attention:
Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, necessitated a coordinated restart and a client patch (v1.17.20).
Regulation: The US SEC has previously cited Solana as an unregistered security — a classification disputed by the Solana Foundation. Outcomes in this area are heavily dependent on policy.
Did you know? CME plans daily, monthly, and quarterly expiries for SOL options, broadening hedging options for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would likely change
Access and flows: Approval would make SOL available to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered investment advisers (RIAs), diminishing operational friction for allocators and expanding the buyer base beyond crypto-native entities.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives equip authorized participants (APs) and market makers with the tools to hedge creations and redemptions, alongside conducting basis or relative-value trades. These mechanisms aid in keeping ETF prices aligned with their NAV and enhance day-one liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic listing standards” expand access beyond BTC and ETH if sponsors comply with the regulations.
Ex-US demand signals: Currently, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) demonstrate that regulated investment wrappers for Solana can draw investor interest.
Did you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be part of Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, compelling issuers to utilize ETPs instead. This explains why “ETP” is present in SIX and London Stock Exchange (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL actually outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A timely US spot SOL ETF with robust early net creations could surpass Ether in total return.
Two main drivers:
Broader access: RIAs and brokerages would receive exposure under the new generic listing standards.
Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and increased capacity as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed options.
The base case
Even with a successful SOL ETF launch, flows might revert to aligning with general risk appetite. Ether maintains a structural institutional edge due to its longer history, increased allocator familiarity, and established ecosystem. Weekly fund flow variances in crypto reflect that relative performance may fluctuate rather than decisively favor SOL.
The bear case
Delays or eligibility concerns under the US SEC framework could temper expectations. Additionally, liquidity might weaken, resulting in APs managing smaller books despite available derivatives, potentially causing Solana to lag behind Ether, which already enjoys a more developed distribution.
Moreover, some regulators have raised concerns about diminished case-specific scrutiny under the generic listing standards, injecting policy uncertainty regarding assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.
What to keep an eye on
If a US spot SOL ETF gains approval, the subsequent developments could be pivotal.
Key indicators to monitor include persistent demand for creations and redemptions, the depth of CME open interest and options activity, and the sustainability of on-chain metrics such as active users, fee revenue, stablecoin settlements, and developer growth beyond speculative spikes. A concurrent rise in these indicators would significantly enhance the likelihood of SOL eclipsing ETH.
A Solana ETF would eliminate a substantial access barrier and come with more robust market infrastructure than previous cycles. However, Ether has already demonstrated it can draw billions through ETFs while anchoring the institutional dialogue.
ETH remains the benchmark, and its flows — while cyclical — highlight its resilience. Whether Solana can genuinely outperform will hinge less on hype and more on the ability of ETF inflows to translate into consistent on-chain adoption.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
