Summary:
SOL aggregate volumes indicate retail traders are entering spot positions as the altcoin recovered from $190.
Traders may be anticipating a positive SEC decision for the Solana ETF on Oct. 10.
SOL (SOL) price surged to $213 on Monday, achieving nearly 12% growth over the last three days, suggesting that the recent dip to $190.85 was seen as a buying opportunity by traders. With the SEC’s final decision on the Solana ETF expected by Oct. 10, SOL charts imply traders are looking to act before this decision, potentially driving the altcoin higher in the next two weeks.
Let’s take a closer look at the current situation regarding SOL.
Retail investors bought the entire dip
As Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market experienced a sell-off last Monday, Binance’s cumulative volume delta indicates retail traders (traded sizes 100 to 1,000) were buying into the decline. A similar pattern is observable in Coinbase’s institutional investor-sized spot CVD (sizes 10,000 to 10 million).
Further evidence of retail investors’ enthusiasm for SOL is reflected in Hyblock’s True Retail Longs and Shorts Accounts metric, which shows the percentage of retail accounts on Binance holding long positions increased from 54.3 to 78.2 during the price peak sell-off.
As these retail traders opted for long positions, Solana’s aggregate spot orderbook bid-ask ratio (set at 10% orderbook depth) surpassed 0, reaching 0.47, indicating a buyer-favored orderbook. The anchored 4-hour cumulative volume delta displayed that retail buyers vigorously purchased SOL, totaling $71.98 million in volume during the latest 4-hour period.
Related: Price forecasts 9/29: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, HYPE
What else is needed for SOL to achieve new highs?
Aside from the daily price fluctuations of the recent recovery, as the Oct. 10 Solana ETF decision approaches, optimistic traders betting on new SOL peaks should monitor the altcoin’s aggregate open interest across centralized exchanges, along with CME open interest and futures volume.
A return to levels observed on Sept. 18, when SOL reached a yearly high of $253, would create favorable conditions over the next two weeks. On Sept. 18, SOL’s CME future open interest recorded $2.12 billion, with CME futures volume at $1.57 billion, and as of Sept. 26 data from Velo.xyz, those figures are now $1.72 billion and $400 million respectively.
Additionally, SOL’s aggregate open interest currently falls short of the pre-yearly price height, where it peaked at $3.65 billion.
Another vital metric is SOL’s cumulative returns per session, particularly in the US, where the spot ETFs are awaiting a final verdict. The chart below shows returns during the US session have improved since Friday.
If SOL is emerging as a trade that investors want to get ahead of before the ETF decision, it would be beneficial to see cumulative returns in APAC and EU sessions also increase to align with trends in the US trading session.
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making a decision.
