Recent predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) prices indicate that the top cryptocurrency might surpass $140,000 before October concludes. Drawing on historical trends and sophisticated empirical modeling, a crypto analyst has stated that the likelihood of Bitcoin ending the month above this crucial threshold is growing strong.
Bitcoin Price Poised for Significant Rally in October
As per a price forecast shared by analyst and economist Timothy Peterson on X social platform, October’s prospects for Bitcoin look bright. His AI-driven simulation model also indicates that a significant portion of the month’s gains may have already been achieved.
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This empirical model, which is based on data from October 2015 to 2024, shows a 50% chance that BTC could finish the month above $140,000, implying an approximate 15% increase from current values near $121,000. Furthermore, the model predicts a 43% likelihood that Bitcoin will end the month below $136,000 during the same period.
Peterson’s chart illustrates daily price movements leading into October 2025, along with a forecasted range extending into early November. The mean prediction, indicated by the dashed blue line, implies a steady ascent from the $120,000 range towards the $140,000 level. The 68% confidence interval is comfortably set above $130,000 for much of the prediction period.
This model also incorporates a 95% confidence interval, represented by the wider orange band, which illustrates the complete range of probable outcomes. It suggests that Bitcoin faces only a slight 5% chance of finishing October below $110,000 or above $170,000.
Notably, Peterson observed previously that October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s most robust months. He pointed out that certain dates within the month, like the 9th, 20th, and 28th, have shown bullish behavior 71% of the time, whereas the 29th has seen gains 78% of the time since 2015. This historical pattern of October spikes gives further credence to the analyst’s optimistic Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that recurring trends may soon drive the cryptocurrency to new heights.
Long-Term BTC Outlook Indicates Steady Growth Toward $200,000
In a different analysis, Peterson presented a chart depicting Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory since 2022. He clarified that he does not adhere to conventional technical analysis, yet he firmly believes in recurring market cycle patterns. The chart shows Bitcoin’s price movements within two parallel red trend lines, revealing a consistent upward trend since the market’s low point.
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In this context, multiple upward segments marked in green represent recurring cycles of rapid price increase. According to this cyclical analysis, Bitcoin is firmly positioned within an established growth corridor, forecasting a potential increase towards $200,000 within the next 170 days. Peterson assigns this optimistic scenario a “greater than 50/50 likelihood,” indicating that the existing market structure and historical recovery trends support the prospect of ongoing BTC price appreciation extending into 2026.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
