The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued “no-action” letters to various prediction markets, exempting them from swap data reporting and record-keeping regulations.
The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and the Division of Clearing and Risk will not take enforcement action against several prediction market platforms for not meeting certain recordkeeping requirements, as long as they adhere to other specific conditions, the agencies stated in a press release on Thursday.
“The no-action letters apply only in specific situations and are similar to no-action letters given to other designated contract markets and derivatives clearing organizations,” they clarified.
The companies receiving a no-action letter include Polymarket US, LedgerX, PredictIt, and Gemini’s prediction markets division, Gemini Titan.
To avoid enforcement, the platforms are required to fully collateralize all contracts by ensuring they are completely backed by reserved assets, and also to publish time and sales data for all event contract transactions on their websites “after execution of the transactions,” as per the letters.
Prediction markets and event contracts allow traders to bet on the outcomes of various events, including sports and unconventional topics like political figures’ clothing choices.
These contracts require extensive reporting and record-keeping in the US, as prediction markets are classified as designated contract markets; however, the no-action letter alleviates immediate enforcement risks related to these obligations.
Related: Gemini soars 14% as new license opens door to US prediction markets
A no-action letter indicates that CFTC staff will not recommend enforcement if the requesting entity fails to comply with specific regulations under defined circumstances; however, it does not change the law and is generally used to temporarily mitigate regulatory risk while the market or product evolves.
Prediction markets record bumper 2025
Prediction markets have emerged as one of the most sought-after crypto offerings this year, with trading volumes on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket frequently reaching billions.
Kalshi reported a trading volume of $5.14 billion over the past 30 days, according to DeFi data aggregator DefiLlama. In contrast, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has recorded $1.9 billion in trading volume in the same timeframe.
Other participants are also entering the market. Crypto.com has recently launched a prediction market platform set to integrate with Trump Media, while tech analyst Jane Manchun Wong noted on Nov. 19 that website data suggested Coinbase is also developing a prediction market platform.
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