Is ETH Poised to Surpass $5K Following Its Recent All-Time High?

Although ETH is currently experiencing a strong uptrend on higher timeframes, the bearish divergences visible on both daily and 4H RSI indicate a need for caution. A potential pullback toward $4.1K shouldn’t be overlooked unless buyers can defend $4.4K and propel the price above the $4.8K ATH with substantial momentum.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum has reached a marginally higher high at $4,884 compared to its former peak. However, the RSI has not followed suit, resulting in a bearish divergence—a classic indicator of potential trend exhaustion.

The price is presently consolidating just below the new ATH, hovering within the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Immediate support is located at $4,400–$4,450, followed by the Fib retracement cluster at $4,070–$3,900, which aligns with the channel’s midline and serves as a high-probability demand zone if a deeper correction occurs.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart illustrates a sharp liquidity sweep toward $4,884, followed by a consolidation phase. Similar to the daily chart, RSI reflects a bearish divergence as the price advances while momentum wanes. This suggests that buyers are losing strength despite achieving higher highs.

Significant short-term supports are at $4,477 (0.5 Fib) and $4,380–$4,311 (0.618–0.702 retracements). A breakdown below these levels could lead to accelerated selling toward $4K, confirming a shift in short-term market structure. On the upside, ETH must reclaim the $4.8K mark with robust momentum to invalidate the divergence and extend the bullish trend.

Onchain Analysis

By Shayan

Ethereum has recently revisited its all-time high levels around $4,800–$4,900, with a significant uptick in futures trading activity. The Futures Volume Bubble Map offers insights into the behavior of derivatives markets, serving as a valuable metric to determine whether speculative activity is cooling or becoming excessively heated. This tool is vital for evaluating market risk and pinpointing potential reversal or continuation points.

The latest data indicates that as ETH surged toward its highs, futures volume experienced a sharp increase, with multiple red bubbles (indicating overheating) appearing on the map. Historically, such circumstances often coincide with local tops or periods of heightened volatility, as increased leverage elevates the risk of liquidation cascades.

A retrospective view shows that similar overheating phases in early and late 2021 preceded significant corrections after Ethereum reached its peaks. Conversely, green phases (indicating cooling) typically represented accumulation zones, where leverage resets and ETH is poised for a new upward movement.

Currently, ETH futures signal an overextended derivatives market, with speculative activity nearing overheated levels close to the ATH. This aligns with the bearish RSI divergences noted on the spot charts, indicating weakening momentum despite rising prices. Although an unexpected surge toward a new ATH remains feasible under these circumstances, the setup indicates an increased short-term volatility risk and potential corrective movements.