Bitcoin’s recent rally at the beginning of October has sparked renewed interest in the market, raising the question: Is October destined to become a noteworthy “Uptober”?
This has revived discussions surrounding the “4-year cycle” theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets follow a repeated, predictable pattern linked to the halving events.
Examining Historical Trends
Joao Wedson, the CEO of Alphractal, an investment analysis firm, is highlighting a significant figure: 548 days.
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A review of Bitcoin’s historical cycles reveals slight variations in the duration between each halving and its ensuing all-time high (ATH). The cycle that began in 2012 lasted 371 days, while the cycles in 2016 and 2020 spanned 525 days and 546 days, respectively.
This gradually increasing trend indicates that the current cycle may be nearing its conclusion. Wedson asserts that this aligns closely with various fractal and market cycle indicators, such as fractal cycles and the Max Intersect SMA.
He posits that 548 days is the crucial target for this cycle, as it marks the anticipated day for the price to reach its zenith. Bitcoin is currently 528 days into its uptrend since the last halving on April 19, 2024.
If Bitcoin reaches its peak on day 548, that would fall on October 19, 2025. Extending his prediction to the furthest point, the peak could be reached as late as November 1, 2025. Wedson commented, “Given that the 4-year cycles remain reliable, we are at most 30 days (or less) away from the price peak of this cycle.”
Another Prediction: Peak Forecasted for December 23, 2025
Another crypto analyst, ‘seliseli46’, has also computed the conclusion of the current bull market. A deep dive into Bitcoin’s historical cycles indicates that each has typically lasted around 152 weeks, or approximately 1,064 days.
- The initial cycle commenced post a market bottom in early 2015 and culminated in a peak by late 2017.
- The second cycle began in late 2018 and peaked in November 2021.
Assuming the third cycle started at the market bottom in November 2022, adding 152 weeks projects its end to be around December 23, 2025.
The analyst noted that this timeline aligns well with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of reaching an all-time high roughly 12 to 18 months post-halving. However, he emphasized that this 152-week cycle is somewhat speculative and susceptible to external influences, including regulations, market psychology, and technological innovations.
