Following the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a nearly 4% decline in the last 24 hours, breaking below its local range low for the first time in a week. Various analysts caution that the closing price for this week is critical for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.
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Bitcoin Price at a Pivotal Weekly Close
On Thursday, Bitcoin fell beneath the recently retrieved $110,000 threshold, hitting a weekly low of $106,700. The cryptocurrency has been contained within the $108,000-$120,000 price band since July but has struggled to regain its previous highs following the early October correction.
In light of recent trends, Ted Pillows noted that this market volatility was anticipated, as BTC has demonstrated a similar pattern since the beginning of Q3. He highlighted that Bitcoin has dropped 6%-8% after each of the last three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, yet also reached a new all-time high (ATH) prior to the next meeting.
The charts indicate that BTC typically hits its local bottom 5-9 days post-meeting, quickly rebounding and often rallying to new highs in ensuing weeks. As the price tests the $106,000 level, Ted predicts a potential repeat of past patterns.
However, he cautioned that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $113,500 mark in the upcoming days to avert a more significant downturn. “A weekly close below that threshold will heighten the chances of a more extensive correction,” he explained.
Similarly, Rekt Capital emphasized that Bitcoin must conclude the week above $114,500 to convert this level into support. He mentioned that following the recent market activity, a volatile retest of this threshold would be “perfectly acceptable,” provided the price finishes above this critical level by the end of the week.
Confirming the ~$114k range low as support would affirm re-entry into the Range, initiate consolidation, and facilitate a move towards the Range High of ~$119,000 (red) in an attempt to break out and challenge the $120k+ mark once again.
Is BTC’s Year-End Rally Still Possible?
Michaël van de Poppe confirmed that $112,000 represents the next significant barrier to clear before reaching a new ATH, as it has served as a vital resistance level in the daily chart recently. According to his analysis, a breakout from this zone could pave the way for a retest in the $119,000-$120,000 region.
Conversely, he warned that a rejection from this point could cause the price to drop towards the $103,000 level or even lower. “I believe we’ll see a new ATH in November,” he added.
Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that BTC appears to be “just playing ping pong” between significant levels, indicating it will likely continue oscillating within its range until one of the limits is decisively broken.
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The trader added that historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, hinting at a potential price rally. In fact, 8 out of the last 12 Novembers closed positively, with a median return of 10.82%, as per CoinGlass data.
Moreover, he highlighted that the final two months of the year typically coincide with the peaks of the last three bull markets and the troughs of the last two bear markets. “Regardless of whether the trend is bullish or bearish, volatility and significant market pivots have characterized the year-end,” he concluded.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
