Hyperliquid’s native token is approaching a critical juncture, with $500 million in monthly unlocks set to commence on Nov. 29, as indicated by research from Arthur Hayes’ family office fund, Maelstrom.
The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token will undergo its “first true test” starting Nov. 29, when a 24-month vesting schedule begins, according to Maelstrom announced on Monday.
This vesting schedule will release $11.9 billion worth of Hyperliquid (HYPE) tokens over 24 months for team members, creating what analysts believe could lead to significant selling pressure. Current buyback activities would only absorb about 17% of that monthly supply, leaving an estimated $410 million in potential overhang, according to Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert.
“Imagine being a Hyperliquid developer. You’ve put in immense effort for years. A life-changing amount in tokens is about to vest; it’s just a click away,” Ruppert noted.
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The monthly release poses a significant risk to Hyperliquid’s price stability. Even the increasing numbers of digital asset treasuries (DATs) like Sonnet are “merely a drop in the ocean compared to the impending HYPE unlocks,” Ruppert stated.
Nasdaq-listed Sonnet BioTherapeutics has teamed up with a new entity, Rorschach, to initiate a HYPE treasury strategy involving $583 million in HYPE tokens and over $305 million in cash, as reported by Cointelegraph on July 17.
The $305 million in cash is also intended for acquiring more HYPE tokens, which remains negligible compared to the future unlocks of the token.
The research emerged shortly after Hayes sold all his HYPE tokens, reportedly using the proceeds for a new Ferrari, as Cointelegraph revealed earlier on Monday.
Previously, Hayes had predicted a potential 126-fold increase for the token by 2028, although he acknowledged that the upcoming vesting phase might introduce volatility.
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Hyperliquid faces rising competition from Aster
Competition is heating up for decentralized exchange Hyperliquid.
Recently, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao’s linked decentralized perpetuals exchange Aster briefly exceeded $2 billion in total value locked (TVL), following the launch of the project’s Aster (APX) token, as reported by Cointelegraph.
“You can’t just take the crypto establishment’s lunch and expect no pushback. Business is war,” stated Maelstrom’s researcher.
“CZ promoting Aster two months before unlocks? Likely not a coincidence.”
The HYPE token hit a new all-time high of $59.29 on Thursday, shortly after Zhao shared a chart for the ASTER token, the native token of a competing derivatives DEX.
Despite Hayes divesting all his HYPE holdings, he continues to see a potential for a 126-fold surge by 2028, as he mentioned in a Monday X post.
Hayes initially predicted a 126x surge for the HYPE token during the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo, driven by ongoing fiat debasement that would affect the stablecoin market, potentially elevating HyperLiquid’s annualized fees to $255 billion, up from its annualized revenue of $1.2 billion at the time.
Hayes is known in the crypto community for his audacious price forecasts.
In April, Hayes projected that Bitcoin (BTC) would exceed $250,000 by the end of 2025, assuming the US Federal Reserve shifts to quantitative easing (QE)—when the Fed purchases bonds and injects liquidity to lower interest rates and stimulate spending during economic downturns.
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