Hedera (HBAR) has made its mark among altcoins rebounding after the recent downturn in the crypto market. HBAR’s price has risen by over 9% in the last 24 hours, recuperating some of its 15% weekly loss.
Despite still being down 20% over the past three months (showing a downward trend), recent technical and on-chain indicators suggest a potential shift from decline to early recovery.
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Whales Step In as Selling Pressure Eases
The selling pressure on HBAR has significantly decreased since October 11. Exchange inflows — indicating coins sent for selling — have dropped from $4.43 million to just $517,000, marking an 88% decline at the time of writing. This suggests fewer traders are offloading tokens, likely indicating that short-term panic has subsided.
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The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which monitors larger wallet movements, has also become noticeably positive, now sitting around 0.10, indicating that whales are increasing their investments instead of selling. Remarkably, the CMF started rising around October 7 and maintained this trend even during the HBAR price drop—signifying that major holders remained confident throughout the downturn.
Conversely, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which reflects overall trading activity and retail participation, is on a downward trend. This indicates weaker retail engagement and suggests that whales may currently be the primary force counterbalancing selling pressure.
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The combination of reduced exchange inflows, an increasing CMF, and a declining MFI points toward early-stage accumulation — potentially led by large wallets gearing up for a longer recovery phase. If retail begins to participate in the coming days, the narrative of an HBAR price rebound may gain further momentum.
Bullish Divergence Suggests Potential HBAR Price Reversal
The enhancing on-chain dynamics are now reflected in HBAR’s price charts as well. Following weeks of selling pressure, HBAR’s three-month, 20% downtrend seems to be slowing down. Although prices remain below a descending trendline, initial indications reveal that bearish momentum might be waning — hinting at a possible recovery.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges the strength of price movements, is exhibiting bullish divergence — one of the earliest technical signs of reversal. Between June 22 and October 10, HBAR’s price recorded lower lows (due to the crash), whereas the RSI produced higher lows. This pattern suggests a weakening pace of selling even as prices continued to fall.
The selling pressure that previously pushed the HBAR price down is beginning to diminish, likely corresponding with whales starting to absorb supply.
If this trend persists, the next confirmation will be a Hedera (HBAR) price breakout above $0.22, a resistance level that has constrained multiple recovery attempts in recent months. Successfully breaching this threshold could allow HBAR to aim for $0.25, and if the momentum continues, even $0.30 in the near future.
However, the situation remains delicate while the HBAR price trades below that descending trendline. A drop below $0.16 could invalidate the rebound scenario, exposing the next major support at $0.14, where buyers would need to re-engage to avert deeper losses.
