Recall when billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya made his $500,000 Bitcoin prediction for October 2025 on the All-In Podcast? A swing and a miss!
After numerous high-profile projections fell short in 2025, trust in Bitcoin’s “target-price narratives” has diminished. Analysts now present forecasts as ranges of scenarios instead of definitive claims. Yet, this hasn’t deterred banks, CEOs, and seasoned traders from releasing ambitious predictions regarding Bitcoin’s future.
Wu Blockchain compiled the main conclusions from these forecasts, highlighting the significant differences in predictions — from optimistic six-figure increases fueled by ETFs and institutional interest to drastic declines linked to macroeconomic tightening and technical weaknesses.
Below is a summary of where leading experts anticipate Bitcoin could be by 2026, and why.
Summary
- The bullish perspective: Bitcoin could soar to $150,000–$250,000 due to ETF influx, institutional adoption, and relaxed monetary policy.
- The bearish perspective: Anticipate declines to $70,000 or below if demand wanes or macroeconomic conditions tighten.
- Factors like liquidity, regulation, and consistent institutional engagement—not just halving cycles—are now considered the principal influences on Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026.
Tom Lee: $200,000–$250,000
BitMine chair Tom Lee has consistently asserted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by increased institutional allocations and substantial inflows from spot ETFs. He believes this institutional participation could fundamentally change Bitcoin’s historical market patterns.
Nonetheless, Fundstrat, which Lee co-founded, offers a range of views.
Sean Farrell: $60,000–$65,000
Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy cautioned clients about a potential sharp decline in early 2026, predicting BTC might drop to $60,000–$65,000 before rebounding. Farrell highlighted the difference in focus: Lee addresses long-term, low-risk institutional investors, while Farrell targets active, high-risk crypto portfolios.
Brad Garlinghouse: $180,000 and $100,000+
During Binance Blockchain Week in December 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse forecasted Bitcoin might reach $180,000 by the end of 2026.
On the same panel, Solana Foundation President Lily Liu proposed a more cautious estimate, suggesting Bitcoin could stay above $100,000, while Binance CEO Richard Teng refrained from specifying a figure but mentioned prices would be “higher than today.”
JPMorgan: $170,000 (Model-Implied Ceiling)
JPMorgan’s digital-assets team, headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, estimates Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted fair value at around $170,000, using a BTC-to-gold relative valuation model. The NY-based investment bank presents this as a theoretical upper limit, indicating potential upside in the next six to 12 months rather than an assured endpoint.
Standard Chartered: $150,000 (Down from $300K)
Once one of Bitcoin’s staunchest advocates, Standard Chartered has significantly revised its predictions. The bank now anticipates BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026, about half its previous estimate. This adjustment reflects decreasing ETF inflows, diminishing demand drivers, and overall market weakness. While remaining optimistic long-term, the bank believes Bitcoin’s timeline has extended.
Bernstein: $150,000
Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 in 2026, fueled by institutional investments and spot-ETF inflows. The firm suggests Bitcoin has outgrown the traditional four-year halving cycle, entering a prolonged institutional bull phase. In the long term, it aims for even bolder targets — potentially reaching $1 million by 2033.
BSTR President Katherine Dowling: $150,000
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve firm BSTR, expects BTC to rise to $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing three primary drivers:
- Clearer U.S. crypto regulations
- A transition to more accommodating monetary policy (rate reductions, end of quantitative tightening)
- Increased Wall Street adoption of Bitcoin ETFs (1%–4% allocations)
Citigroup: $143,000 (Base Case)
Citi presents three scenarios for a potential 62% increase from current levels around $88,000:
- Base case: $143,000
- Bear case: ~$78,500
- Bull case: ~$189,000 if demand from institutional and retail investors rises
The bank identifies $70,000 as a crucial support level.
Arthur Hayes: $124,000 to $200,000
Crypto trader Arthur Hayes, in his December 19 essay titled “Love Language,” forecasts Bitcoin could surpass approximately $124,000 in 2026 and potentially challenge the ~$200,000 mark.
According to Wu Blockchain, Hayes’ reasoning is as follows:
Money supply increases → inflation pressures → investors shift to scarce assets (like BTC) as a hedge.
