The increasing financial deficit of France’s central bank could lead to a new wave of money printing, potentially unlocking billions for Bitcoin.
The Banque de France (BdF) reported a net loss of 7.7 billion euros ($8 billion) for fiscal year 2024, primarily due to negative net interest income from high payments, as stated in a press release published in March 2025.
This has pushed France’s government deficit to over 168 billion euros ($176 billion) in 2024, equating to 5.8% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), far surpassing the European Union’s 3% threshold.
Currently, France’s central bank ranks among the worst performers in the bloc, with the deficit indicating capital outflows from the nation.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, suggests that France’s financial situation may trigger “trillions of euros” in money printing by the European Central Bank (ECB), indicating new liquidity for Bitcoin (BTC).
“Capital is flowing out of France. If you compare the gross changes with other members, it’s the worst,” Hayes mentioned in an interview with Cointelegraph at TOKEN2049 in Singapore. “The real concern is French capital moving to Germany and Japan as they invest in their domestic markets, due to shifts in the global economic order.”
“This is what prompts the ECB to consider printing now or later in trillions of euros. That’s the overall picture,” Hayes added. “This is beneficial for crypto.”
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ECB either prints “now or later”
However, diminished investment from the US means that the German and Japanese capital that once supported France’s budget is no longer available, Hayes explained.
“My belief is that the ECB must choose to print now or later, and either way, they risk losing control, as people will prioritize defaulting, redenominating, imposing capital controls, or printing money to maintain their way of life.”
Hayes suggests the ECB may need to initiate printing soon to accommodate French spending, or wait to attempt to rescue the European banking system. “There are no alternatives,” he stated.
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The escalating fiscal deficit in France may push the ECB toward quantitative easing (QE), which entails central banks purchasing bonds and injecting cash into the economy to stimulate spending amid stagnant economic conditions.
In 2022, Bitcoin experienced gains following QE announcements from major banks like the US Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin’s price surged over 1,050% during the previous quantitative easing phase, rising from around $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021, following the Fed’s $4 trillion bond-buying initiative announced on March 23, 2020, amid the COVID-19 crisis.
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