Approximately 42% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply, equating to 8.3 million Bitcoin (BTC), might become “illiquid” by 2032 at the ongoing pace of acquisitions by Bitcoin treasury firms, as noted by asset management firm Fidelity.
In a report released on Monday, Fidelity outlined two categories whose supply could be classified as illiquid, based on the condition that their Bitcoin supply has increased each quarter or at least 90% of the time over the past four years.
This analysis identified two groups: Long-term Bitcoin holders and publicly traded companies possessing a minimum of 1,000 Bitcoin, the latter of which has been on the rise this year.
The illiquid supply of Bitcoin indicates that less is available on the open market, which could positively impact Bitcoin’s price.
“We estimate that this combined group will possess over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 — or over 28% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be mined,” stated Fidelity.
It was noted that long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those who have not moved Bitcoin from their wallets for at least seven years, have experienced no decrease in supply since 2016.
The second group, publicly traded companies with at least 1,000 BTC, has also generally maintained their Bitcoin holdings, only facing a singular quarter of supply decrease in Q2 2022.
This cohort may further expand in the future, as there are currently 105 publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin. At present, these companies control more than 969,000 BTC, representing 4.61% of Bitcoin’s overall supply, according to data from Bitbo.
42% of Bitcoin supply to become illiquid
Looking toward the future, Fidelity forecasts that 8.3 million BTC could shift to being illiquid by the second quarter of 2032.
The company calculated this figure under the assumption that the group of wallets holding BTC for at least seven years will continue to increase their supply at the same rate as observed over the last decade.
The estimate did not include potential additional supply shortages due to more public companies entering the market.
“As of the end of Q2 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply was approximately 19.8 million. We estimate that nearly 42% — or over 8.3 million Bitcoin — will be deemed illiquid by Q2 2032.”
Potential sell-off by the whales
The report pointed out that these two groups collectively possess Bitcoin valued at $628 billion, with an average price of $107,700, which is double compared to last year at the end of the second quarter.
Related: Bitcoin whale is selling again as BTC stabilizes at $116K
This situation raises concerns regarding what might occur with the price of Bitcoin if whales begin to liquidate their BTC holdings.
Bitcoin whales have collectively disposed of BTC worth nearly $12.7 billion in the last 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022. Simultaneously, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 2% over the past month, according to CoinGecko.
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