On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, the third this year, meeting market predictions. Mirroring previous pre-FOMC price movements, Bitcoin surged above $94,000 on Monday; however, the media’s hawkish portrayal of the rate cut indicates a divided Fed regarding the future of US monetary policy and the economy.
Due to the “hawkish” nature of this week’s rate cut, there is a possibility that Bitcoin’s price may decline on the news and remain stagnant until a new momentum catalyst appears.
CNBC reported that the Fed’s 9-3 vote signifies ongoing concerns among members regarding the persistence of inflation, suggesting that economic growth and the pace of future rate cuts could decelerate in 2026.
As per Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) remains confined within a structurally fragile range under $100,000, with price movements bounded between the short-term cost basis of $102,700 and the “True Market Mean” of $81,300.
Glassnode’s data also indicates deteriorating on-chain conditions, dwindling futures demand, and ongoing sell pressure, which continue to keep BTC below $100,000.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s structurally fragile range has kept the market below $100,000, leading to increasing unrealized losses.
Realized losses have surged to $555 million/day, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022.
Significant profit-taking from holders with over 1-year positions and the capitulation of primary buyers are obstructing a reclaim of the STH-Cost Basis.
Fed rate cuts may not significantly elevate Bitcoin’s price in the short term.
Time is running out for Bitcoin to recover $100,000
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s failure to rise past $100,000 illustrates an increasing structural tension: time is against the bulls. The longer the price remains within this vulnerable range, the greater the unrealized losses that accumulate, heightening the risk of forced selling.
The relative unrealized loss (30-day-SMA) has climbed to 4.4%, ending two years below 2% and indicating a shift into a higher-stress environment. Even with BTC’s rebound from the Nov. 22 low to around $92,700, the entity-adjusted realized loss continued to rise, reaching $555 million/day, a level last seen during the FTX capitulation.
Simultaneously, long-term holders (over a 1-year holding period) realized profits of more than $1 billion/day, peaking at a record $1.3 billion. This dynamic of capitulation from primary buyers and heavy distribution from long-term holders likely kept BTC under key cost-basis thresholds, unable to retake the $95,000–$102,000 resistance range that constricted the fragile market.
Related: Bitcoin hikes volatility into ‘tricky’ FOMC as $93.5K yearly open fails
Spot-led rally meets declining BTC futures market
Data from CryptoQuant showed that the crypto market typically experiences rallies ahead of FOMC meetings, but a notable divergence has emerged where Bitcoin’s price has risen while open interest (OI) has declined.
OI has fallen during the corrective phase since October, with even post-BTC’s bottom on Nov. 21 showing continued decline despite the price reaching higher levels. This indicates a rally led primarily by spot demand rather than leverage-driven speculation.
CryptoQuant noted that while uptrends driven by spot demand are generally positive, sustained bullish momentum historically relies on increasing leverage positions. Given that derivatives volumes are structurally dominant, spot volume made up only 10% of derivatives activity, which the market may struggle to maintain if expectations of rate cuts diminish leading into the meeting.
Related: Short the dip and buy the rip? What FOMC outcomes reveal about Bitcoin price action
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
