Key takeaways:
Ether’s price previously experienced a 60% drop following a bearish cross that is now re-emerging.
ETH must stay above $4,000 to prevent further declines.
The MACD indicator for Ether (ETH) has issued a “sell” signal on the weekly chart, a condition that historically foreshadows significant price declines.
Past signals resulted in 46%-60% drops in ETH prices
The MACD indicator for Ether signaled a bearish trend in early 2025, resulting in over a 60% plunge in ETH’s spot price within weeks.
A similar situation is unfolding in October, raising the chances of a deeper drop in the near term.
Related: BitMine seems to capitalize on the dip as ETH falls 20% from its peak
The MACD is a widely used momentum indicator in technical analysis that aids traders in determining the strength, direction, and duration of a price trend.
This indicator has created a bearish cross on the weekly chart, as illustrated in the figure below.
Historical data indicates that ETH often sees sharp declines when the MACD line (blue) crosses below the signal line (orange). Notable losses occurred at 46% in mid-2024 and 60% in Q1 2025.
“Not thrilled about this Ethereum weekly MACD crossing to red after 22 weeks of green,” stated analyst CRYPTO Damus in a post on X, noting that the last three instances of this bearish cross led to substantial drops in ETH prices.
Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, advised followers to be “ready for any situation” once the signal is confirmed.
Is #Ethereum shifting momentum? 👀
After breaking above the range highs, $ETH seems to be re-entering the weekly range.
Although the week hasn’t closed yet, the MACD is currently crossing bearish.
Confirmation needed, but one must be prepared for any scenario. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Zi6d68jMdr
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) October 16, 2025
Other analysts believe that the altcoin may continue to retrace to test lower support levels before embarking on another rally toward $5,000.
Bulls must maintain ETH above $4,000
The price of Ether is nearing a crucial point as it revisits the $4,000 support level, which it has maintained since regaining it in early August.
Bulls need to keep ETH above this mark to boost the chances of resuming its upward trajectory.
Recall that the last time Ether fell below this level in December 2021, it resulted in a 78% decline, hitting around $880 during the 2022 bear market.
“As long as ETH maintains above the $3,899 support level, a direct move upward remains a possibility,” mentioned Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin in an X post, adding:
“A break below this level would imply that a more significant correction is in progress.”
Trader Koala remarked that ETH is currently facing a “weekly breakdown and trend loss” after losing support at $4,200.
“We can expect downward acceleration sooner rather than later.”
This indicates a weekly breakdown and trend loss.
This is not a bullish scenario (that’s just denial from the bulls)
Downward acceleration seems likely sooner than later.
Weekly range low deviation?
Maybe.
But I wouldn’t bank on it. pic.twitter.com/4Fq2OsOO7j
— Trader Koala (@trader_koala) October 16, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, Ether bears currently dominate the market, aiming to push prices below the lower boundary of a descending channel at $3,745 on the daily time frame.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
