Ether (ETH) has surpassed Bitcoin (BTC) regarding price developments and ETF flows this week, strengthening the narrative of capital rotation. In the past two weeks, the spot ETH ETFs recorded $360 million in net inflows compared to BTC’s $120 million, indicating a shift in investor preference at the moment.
Key takeaways:
Spot ETH ETFs have secured three times more inflows than BTC, reinforcing their relative momentum.
ETH’s price action on higher time frames exceeds that of Bitcoin, suggesting Ether has likely bottomed out.
Retail accumulates Ether, but one more pullback could occur
Data from CryptoQuant noted that the spot average order size metric indicated a distinct behavioral shift in Ether markets. When ETH fell below $2,700 on Nov. 21, retail buyers stepped in aggressively, resulting in a sharp demand-driven rebound. This reflected earlier accumulation phases, notably during March–May, where initial retail activity preceded a deeper correction.
Historically, retail-driven rebounds at local lows often lead to a final liquidity revisit, shaking out late buyers before a more robust rally occurs. This pattern suggests ETH may still experience a controlled pullback to reset positioning and set the stage for a more sustained upward movement.
Currently, Ether’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) stands at about 0.22, indicating a balanced market, suggesting that investors remain moderately profitable without veering into euphoria.
Notably, NUPL has not dipped into negative territory, indicating that holders are structurally strong, which lessens the chance of further selling pressure. As long as NUPL remains above 0.20, sentiment will continue to support a rebound once catalysts align.
Related: Bitcoin’s strongest trading day since May cues possible rally to $107K
ETH trumps Bitcoin, for now
From a technical perspective, Ether displayed a clearer high-time-frame (HTF) setup than Bitcoin. ETH recently confirmed a break of structure (BOS) with a movement into a 20-day high above $3,200, demonstrating that buyers have overcome prior resistance and initiated a trend shift.
However, BTC still requires a definitive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, leaving ETH with a structural advantage.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further solidified this advantage. The pair recently broke above a 30-day consolidation zone, where supply had repeatedly capped upward attempts.
This breakout was supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a trend baseline that has remained firm since July. Historically, ETH/BTC reclaiming the 200-day SMA and breaking out of a multi-week range has coincided with periods of sustained ETH outperformance.
If BTC stabilizes above $94,000 and secures a close above $96,000, it would relieve further overhead pressure for the altcoin. In such a scenario, ETH is well-positioned to extend its newly established uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high, and, if momentum accelerates, targeting the next expansion level at $3,900, approximately another 20% from current prices, where external liquidity clusters currently reside.
Related: Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
