Ether (ETH) has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) this week in terms of price dynamics and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, reinforcing the narrative of capital rotation. Over the past fortnight, the spot ETH ETFs attracted $360 million in net inflows, compared to BTC’s $120 million, indicating a temporary shift in investor preference.
Key takeaways:
Spot ETH ETFs have garnered three times the inflows of BTC, enhancing their relative momentum.
ETH’s higher timeframe price performance exceeds that of Bitcoin, indicating potential market bottoming.
Retail accumulates Ether, but another pullback may occur
According to data from CryptoQuant noted, the average order size metric for spots indicates a marked behavioral change in Ether markets. When ETH fell below $2,700 on Nov. 21, retail buyers aggressively entered the market, prompting a sharp rebound in demand. This pattern resembles previous accumulation phases, notably from March to May, where early retail activities preceded a deeper correction.
Historically, retail-driven rebounds at local lows often result in a final liquidity revisit, shaking out late buyers before a more robust rally can take place. This dynamic suggests that ETH might still experience a controlled pullback to reset positions and set the stage for a more sustained upward movement.
Currently, Ethereum’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is around 0.22, representing a balanced market, which indicates that investors are in moderate profit without succumbing to euphoria.
Crucially, NUPL has not dipped into negative territory, suggesting that holders remain structurally strong, which diminishes the likelihood of additional selling pressure. As long as NUPL stays above 0.20, sentiment remains conducive to a rebound once catalysts align.
Related: Bitcoin’s strongest trading day since May cues possible rally to $107K
ETH outshines Bitcoin, for now
From a technical perspective, Ether has presented a clearer high-time-frame (HTF) setup compared to Bitcoin. ETH has recently confirmed a break of structure (BOS) by reaching a 20-day high above $3,200, indicating that buyers have reclaimed former resistance and initiated a trend reversal.
However, BTC requires a decisive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout, leaving ETH in a more advantageous structural position.
The ETH/BTC daily chart further reinforces this advantage. The pair has recently broken above a 30-day consolidation range, where resistance repeatedly capped upside attempts.
This breakout was supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a trend baseline that has remained firm since July. Historically, ETH/BTC reclaiming the 200-day SMA and breaking a multi-week range has coincided with periods of significant ETH outperformance.
If BTC stabilizes above $94,000 and closes above $96,000, it would relieve further upward pressure on the altcoin. In that event, ETH is well-positioned to extend its newly established uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high, and, should momentum accelerate, possibly targeting the next expansion level at $3,900, representing an additional 20% increase from current levels, where external liquidity clusters are visible.
Related: Bitcoin rejects at key $93.5K as Fed rate-cut bets meet ‘strong’ bear case
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
