The highly anticipated House of Doge announcement — a proposed merger that could see Dogecoin’s corporate branch listed on NASDAQ by early 2026 — briefly sparked optimism within the DOGE community. This excitement contributed to a nearly 45% rebound in the Dogecoin price by October 13, recovering sharply from its lows during the “Black Friday” crash.
However, this recovery turned out to be an opportunity for exiting. Major holder groups sold portions of their holdings, indicating that the optimism might have stemmed more from hype than solid conviction. In the last 24 hours, the price has mostly remained stable, prompting traders to focus on the 4-hour chart for early indicators of Dogecoin’s next movement.
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Whales and Long-Term Holders Exit Through and After the Rebound
In the aftermath of the House of Doge excitement, on-chain data reveals that both significant wallets and long-term investors have significantly reduced their positions.
Whale wallets — those holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE — decreased their balances from 28.83 billion DOGE on October 13 (the day of the merger announcement) to 28.47 billion DOGE two days later, resulting in roughly 360 million DOGE sold, estimated at about $74 million at the current Dogecoin price.
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In addition, the Holder Net Position Change, an indicator tracking whether long-term investors are buying or selling, continued to decline. Between October 9 and October 14, net selling increased from –48 million DOGE to –329 million DOGE, indicating that even dedicated holders are exiting. While the crash sentiment played a role, conditions did not improve significantly even as the Black Friday anxiety subsided.
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Note: On a slightly positive note, compared to October 12, when the figure was around –366 million DOGE, the current value of –329 million DOGE suggests that some buying may be returning following the merger news.
In total, nearly 640 million DOGE, equating to approximately $130 million, exited whale and holder wallets during and after the 45% bounce. This pattern indicates that many took advantage of the temporary strength to reduce exposure or accept smaller losses.
Dogecoin Price Faces Key Test Near $0.20
On the 4-hour chart (used to identify early trend changes), the Dogecoin price continues to trade within a descending triangle — a pattern that typically indicates potential weakness if buyers fail to defend critical levels. The upper resistance zone is around $0.206, and a daily close above it would signify short-term strength.
Nonetheless, the chart isn’t entirely positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which gauges momentum and identifies overbought or oversold conditions — displays a hidden bearish divergence. While prices have formed lower highs, the RSI has made higher highs, indicating a decrease in buying power. This type of divergence suggests a potential correction in the short term.
Furthermore, $0.194 serves as a critical support line and a vital base for the bearish triangle. A significant break below this level could lead to deeper corrections, opening levels of $0.181 and even $0.149 for the Dogecoin price (acting as additional lower bases for the descending triangle).
